235
FXUS63 KICT 150753
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
253 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREMELY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONG WINDS.
- FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN KS.
- FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH LOWS
MONDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. CONFIDENCE STILL HIGH THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE
LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ABOUT TO MOVE OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL KS
WITH A SHARP WARM FRONT FROM NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
WITH A COLD FRONT STARTING TO SURGE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KS.
SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST THIS MORNING AND BY 12Z WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN MO, WHICH WILL ALLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT TO
SURGE THROUGH KS. COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR
CENTRAL KS COUNTIES IN THE 09-11Z TIME FRAME AND MOVE THROUGH
WICHITA IN THE 13-14Z RANGE. NORTHWEST WINDS WON'T WASTE ANY
TIME RAMPING-UP WITH GUSTS 50-55 MPH RIGHT BEHIND IT THIS
MORNING WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTS IN THE 60-65 MPH RANGE ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-135. DID GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLOWING DUST TODAY TO INCLUDE ALL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. WINDS WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO DECREASE SNOW CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA TODAY, WITH MOST VERY MINOR ACCUMULATION CHANCES OVER
NORTHEAST KS. HOWEVER, STILL FEEL THAT WE WILL SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA, WHICH WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE
SEEN SINCE THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS MONDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
BY MON AFTERNOON, DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK, AS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND STARTING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. BY THURSDAY, WE ARE LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE 80S THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TO
MOVE-IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH KRSL-KGBD AROUND 11Z AND KICT
AROUND 14Z. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY RAMP-
UP WITH GUSTS IN THE 45 TO 55 MPH RANGE LIKELY. THEN WE SHOULD
SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SPEEDS BY 16-17Z WHERE GUSTS IN THE
60-65 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF
I-135. WINDS WILL START TO QUICKLY DECREASE IN THE 00-01Z TIME
FRAME BUT WILL STILL REMAIN GUSTY.
WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH KSLN AND KCNU HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
THESE. AT THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO RUN WITH
VCSH. ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STRONG WINDS MAY KICK-UP
SOME BLOWING DUST, WITH CENTRAL KS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DUE TO DUST. THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GUST UP TO 55-65 MPH
CAUSING VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
ABOVE 45% AND SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES, FIRE DANGER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047-048.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ049>053-067>071-082-083-091>095-098-099.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ072-096-100.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...RBL
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