309
FXUS63 KICT 160541
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1241 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET.
- COOL ON MONDAY WITH MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEK WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPECTED TO SEE
HIGHS IN THE 80S BY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON DEPICT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA. A DEEP SURFACE LOW IS TRACKING EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SPANNING
ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT CONTINUE TO GUST TO 50-60+ MPH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE GUSTS IN THE
30-40 MPH RANGE HEADING INTO MONDAY.
CHILLY AIR ALREADY OBSERVED BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ADDITIONALLY, WITH GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING,
WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO START THE DAY ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR. DESPITE THIS
INSOLATION, HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE STILL FORECAST IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOW 40S, WHICH IS ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FREEZING, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW
20S HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH THE RETURN OF
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S AS A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS FEATURE WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, AND RESULTANT INCREASING THICKNESSES
WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S BY THURSDAY. LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE EXCEPTIONALLY-WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
ONLY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
DEEP SURFACE LOW IS NOW TRACKING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
MON MORNING WITH EASTERN KS SEEING THE HIGHER SPEEDS, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 30KT LIKELY. WIND SPEEDS WILL VERY SLOWLY DECREASE ON
MON, ESPECIALLY AS SUNSET APPROACHES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60-65 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER, THOUGH COOL TEMPERATURES AND RH VALUES ABOVE 40% IN
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST FIRE CONCERNS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...JWK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page