185
FXUS63 KICT 161103
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
603 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TODAY WITH HIGHS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 30S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA.
- WARMING TREND TO COMMENCE TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON SUNDAY NOW STRETCHES
FROM THE SURFACE LOW DOWN TO ALONG THE TX GULF COAST WITH AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS CONTINUING TO SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
EVEN THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY, HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS THEY ONLY TOP OUT IN THE
30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES.
FOR TUESDAY, UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD. THIS WILL LEAVE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH UPPER RIDGING
STARTING TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTHERN CA INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT
BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A WARMING TREND WITH WIDESPREAD 80S LIKELY
BY THURSDAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE THAT BY FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, WE COULD
SEE SOME READINGS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES FOR THE WESTERN PORTION
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD
FRONT WILL TRY AND MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
WITH THE GFS MORE ROBUST WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE MAINLY DUE TO THE TIMING OF
A SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL REMAIN GUSTY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-135, WHERE GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH WILL BE
COMMON. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BE ON THE DECREASE
TODAY AND BY EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10
MPH AND WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 06Z. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY HIGH THAT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
TODAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...RBL
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