280
FXUS63 KICT 162340
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
640 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AIRMASS TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- BIG UPSWINGS IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.
- STAYING DRY OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONTINUES TO PERMEATE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. CONTINUED PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH MOST PLACES IN THE ICT
CWA STILL BELOW FREEZING AS OF 2PM THIS AFTERNOON. STILL, AFTERNOON
HIGHS LATER TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT SUPPORTING LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA; HOWEVER, LOWS
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE PRIOR TO SUNRISE
ALLOWING JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FREE FALLING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
A STRONG, POTENTIALLY HISTORIC MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE WITH A FAIRLY BIG UPSWING IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE LITTLE WRENCH
IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A SERIES
OF WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER, ANY "COOLER" AIR MASSES WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY
MODIFIED AND WILL NOT NEARLY HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER RIDGING. TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION
TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LASTLY, THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS ARE LIKELY TO BE PRECIP-FREE ACROSS
THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE ON SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY
MORNING AND INCREASING ABOVE 10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN WESTERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. MIDLEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH 18Z. LOOK FOR SCT/BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 10-15 KFT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VERY WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...AMD
FIRE WEATHER...JC
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