464
FXUS63 KICT 170541
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1241 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AIRMASS TO LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- BIG UPSWINGS IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. NEAR RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND.
- STAYING DRY OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR CONTINUES TO PERMEATE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. CONTINUED PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH MOST PLACES IN THE ICT
CWA STILL BELOW FREEZING AS OF 2PM THIS AFTERNOON. STILL, AFTERNOON
HIGHS LATER TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT SUPPORTING LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE AREA; HOWEVER, LOWS
WILL PROBABLY OCCUR FAIRLY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE PRIOR TO SUNRISE
ALLOWING JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FREE FALLING
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
A STRONG, POTENTIALLY HISTORIC MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE WITH A FAIRLY BIG UPSWING IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONE LITTLE WRENCH
IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A SERIES
OF WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER, ANY "COOLER" AIR MASSES WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY
MODIFIED AND WILL NOT NEARLY HAVE AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER RIDGING. TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WEEK, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH NEAR RECORD
HIGHS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION
TO THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LASTLY, THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS ARE LIKELY TO BE PRECIP-FREE ACROSS
THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AVIATION CONCERN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TODAY AND WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS RESULTING IN SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN KS WITH THESE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THEY WILL STAY AT VFR
LEVELS. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE THIS MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VERY WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...JC
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