442
FXUS63 KICT 170734
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
234 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
MAX TEMP RECORDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FRI-SAT.
- PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
IN THE 700-600MB LEVEL IS DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT 88D RETURNS
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER, WITH SUCH EXTREMELY
DRY LOW LEVELS, NO PRECIP IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND, WITH JUST
A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN PLACE. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TODAY AS LEE TROUGHING STARTS TO STRENGTHEN. CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
STAY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING TO BUILD RIDGING
FROM SOUTHERN CA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WED, WITH RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THUR. THIS WILL PROMOTE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR WED-SAT. WIDESPREAD 80S ARE
LIKELY FOR THUR-SAT WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO OUR
WESTERN FLANK FOR FRI AND ESPECIALLY SAT. ALSO LOOKING LIKE A
FEW MAX TEMP RECORDS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT.
PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING, KNOCKING
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. WITH THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AVIATION CONCERN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TODAY AND WILL
BE SITUATED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. MID
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS RESULTING IN SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS
WESTERN KS WITH THESE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THEY WILL STAY AT VFR
LEVELS. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE THIS MORNING
WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 20KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH'S VALUES WILL BRING VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KS. STRONGER WINDS
WILL THEN ALLOW VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR SUNDAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...JC
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