339
FXUS63 KICT 171741
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1241 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW
MAX TEMP RECORDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR FRI-SAT.
- PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING JUST OFF OF THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. STRONG WARM ADVECTION
IN THE 700-600MB LEVEL IS DEVELOPING SOME LIGHT 88D RETURNS
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER, WITH SUCH EXTREMELY
DRY LOW LEVELS, NO PRECIP IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND, WITH JUST
A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IN PLACE. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST TODAY AS LEE TROUGHING STARTS TO STRENGTHEN. CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TEMPS TODAY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH ANY PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH PERSISTENT MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
STAY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING TO BUILD RIDGING
FROM SOUTHERN CA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON WED, WITH RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THUR. THIS WILL PROMOTE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR WED-SAT. WIDESPREAD 80S ARE
LIKELY FOR THUR-SAT WITH SOME 90S POSSIBLY CREEPING INTO OUR
WESTERN FLANK FOR FRI AND ESPECIALLY SAT. ALSO LOOKING LIKE A
FEW MAX TEMP RECORDS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY FOR BOTH FRI AND SAT.
PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING, KNOCKING
TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY. WITH THE BETTER UPPER SUPPORT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-135 DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNSET. THEN,
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHERLY. GENERALLY
SPEAKING, WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KNOTS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. LASTLY, A PERIOD OF MARGINAL LLWS IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH'S VALUES WILL BRING VERY HIGH
FIRE DANGER ON SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL KS. STRONGER WINDS
WILL THEN ALLOW VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE
AREA FOR SUNDAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC
FIRE WEATHER...RBL
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