257
FXUS63 KICT 091958
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
258 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY, THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT A MID/UPPER WAVE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A SECONDARY UPPER
LOW SPINS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLIER
TODAY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AMID A 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE.
SURFACE INSTABILITY AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG AND NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WILL
ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE GRADUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTH ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ LATER TONIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE (HREF) PLACING
IT ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-54 BY 12Z FRIDAY. WHILE SOME
OUTLIERS CARRY THIS BOUNDARY AS FAR SOUTH AS US-160 AND AS FAR NORTH
AS US-50, MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT DAYTIME HEATING ALONGSIDE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER, STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED ESPECIALLY AS STORMS CLUSTER AND SHIFT INTO
SOUTHEAST KS. WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS ADVECTING COOLER AIR
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS, HIGH TEMPERATURES NORTH OF US-50 ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 50S, WHILE AREAS IN SOUTHERN KS COULD WARM
INTO THE LOW 70S.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A POTENT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WE CONTINUE
TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AMID LIMITED CAPPING, THOUGH AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
NOTED, CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS TIME CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE/SURFACE BOUNDARY. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS
AS THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE 70S AND
LOW 80S, AND THESE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG
MID/UPPER WAVE TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. MODEL PROGNOSIS
HIGHLIGHTS AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE RETURN OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD. STAY TUNED AS ADDITIONAL DETAILS
COME INTO FOCUS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
THE SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE KS/NE BORDER WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR ALL SITES. SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW
PASSING SPRINKLES LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS LEADING TO BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS, PRIMARILY DUE TO REDUCED VIS IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH, DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES BY 08-10Z. BEHIND THE
FRONT, CIGS WILL ALSO FALL TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE, THEN AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH CONTINUED GREEN UP MAY
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO REDUCE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER THE
UPCOMING DAYS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...AMD
FIRE WEATHER...JWK
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