251
FXUS63 KICT 092343
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
643 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KS.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY, THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT A MID/UPPER WAVE
TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A SECONDARY UPPER
LOW SPINS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS EARLIER
TODAY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AMID A 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE.
SURFACE INSTABILITY AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG AND 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY OBSERVED ALONG AND NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR WILL
ALLOW FOR A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE GRADUALLY SHIFTS
SOUTH ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ LATER TONIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE (HREF) PLACING
IT ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-54 BY 12Z FRIDAY. WHILE SOME
OUTLIERS CARRY THIS BOUNDARY AS FAR SOUTH AS US-160 AND AS FAR NORTH
AS US-50, MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT DAYTIME HEATING ALONGSIDE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7-8 C/KM AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS
WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER, STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED ESPECIALLY AS STORMS CLUSTER AND SHIFT INTO
SOUTHEAST KS. WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS ADVECTING COOLER AIR
INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS, HIGH TEMPERATURES NORTH OF US-50 ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 50S, WHILE AREAS IN SOUTHERN KS COULD WARM
INTO THE LOW 70S.
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A POTENT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WE CONTINUE
TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AMID LIMITED CAPPING, THOUGH AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
NOTED, CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS TIME CONSIDERING THE LACK
OF A WELL-DEFINED DRYLINE/SURFACE BOUNDARY. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
LOOK TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS
AS THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE 70S AND
LOW 80S, AND THESE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG
MID/UPPER WAVE TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. MODEL PROGNOSIS
HIGHLIGHTS AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE RETURN OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS PERIOD. STAY TUNED AS ADDITIONAL DETAILS
COME INTO FOCUS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING ALONG WITH LOW CIGS AND WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO
NORTH OF KRSL AND INTO NORTHWEST KS. MEANWHILE, A LOSE DRYLINE
EXTENDS FROM WEST OF KHYS TO NEAR KDDC. STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG
THIS DRYLINE OVER WEST/CENTRAL KS AND ALSO A ALONG THE FRONT
OVER NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST KS EVENTUALLY BECOMING
THE MOST WIDESPREAD AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN THIS EVENING. SO
KRSL-KSLN-KGBD WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT STORMS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH KSLN HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO LAST THE
LONGEST.
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE THROUGH KRSL-
KSLN-KGBD BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z AND KICT AROUND 13Z. SOME SHOWERS
AND ISO STORMS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH,
ALONG WITH SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS FOLLOWING BEHIND AS THE COLDER AIR
MOVES-IN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
GUSTY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE, THEN AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH CONTINUED GREEN UP MAY
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO REDUCE THE FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER THE
UPCOMING DAYS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...JWK
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