325
FXUS63 KICT 101000
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
500 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COUPLE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TODAY IS THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 50S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 70S
ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. OTHERWISE THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
THE REST OF THE SEVEN DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 454 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS, FRONTAL POSITION IS FROM DODGE CITY TO MCPHERSON TO
MANHATTAN. IT IS MOVING SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PLAY A ROLE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
DAY. THERE HAVE BEEN TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION IN THE STATE
(SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST) THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WHICH HAVE
SLOWLY MOVED EAST. GIVEN WHAT HAS OCCURRED SO FAR, THE ACTIVITY
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS COULD MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT RECENT TRENDS HAVE SHOWED A DISSIPATION AS IT
REACHES LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WERE KEPT AROUND 20-40% FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IN
NORTHEAST KANSAS IS STARTING TO DROP MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH WOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS; THEREFORE THE CHANCES
ARE 30-50% FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A LATER
ARRIVAL TIME; TODAY IS THE COOLEST DAY IN THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS,
BUT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IS A FACTOR WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT
COULD HALT NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER INTO THE OZARKS. INSTABILITY AND
FORCING SHOULD BE ADEQUATE WITH THE COLD FRONT WHERE CAPE IS FROM
1500-2500 J/KG FROM 18-0Z, BUT THE SHEAR IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE (20-
30 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK) EVEN WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT OCCURRED THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BETTER INSTABILITY
IS IN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THIS, A COUPLE OF STRONG TO MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO BE IN
THE COUNTIES BORDERING OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS IF SOMETHING
WERE TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE NICKEL TO MAYBE QUARTER
SIZED HAIL AND 50-60 MPH WINDS. STRONGER CONVECTION IS DEPENDENT ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH WHERE IT MAY DECIDE TO
HOLD UP. IF IT MAINTAINS ITS PUSH SOUTH, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MAY
END UP IN OKLAHOMA AND OZARKS INSTEAD. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE
CURRENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A RIDGE FURTHER SHIFTS IN FROM THE
WEST. IT MAY END UP BEING JUST LOW CLOUDS.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE PUSHING
EAST TO CAP OFF THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT COULD
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE RISK IS MARGINAL AS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN PART DUE TO THE LACK
OF SUPPORT ALOFT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL WAVES TO START OFF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACKS OF THESE SYSTEMS LOWERING THE CONFIDENCE IN WHAT OCCURS.
BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD,
BUT IT IS THE DETAILS THAT ARE UNCERTAIN. STAY TUNED. THERE ARE EVEN
GREATER MODEL DISCREPANCIES FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK CHALLENGING
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS WINDOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST ARE GENERALLY FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S
WHICH ARE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE STORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ALONG WITH LOWER CEILINGS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR KSLN TO KGBD AND TO NORTH
OF KDDC. SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION OVER NORTHEAST KS, WHERE LOW
LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED. FEEL THAT THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH
EASTERN KS HAVING THE BETTER STORM COVERAGE COMPARED TO CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. AFTER 12Z, FEEL THAT THE BEST STORM
CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KS AS FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTH, WITH MAINLY JUST A FEW SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL KS.
AS COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH, COOLER AIR WILL RUN INTO HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS. FEEL THAT KGBD-
KSLN-KHUT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE IFR THROUGH LATE FRI
MORNING. WHILE WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN IFR CIGS, CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH THAT THEY WILL BUILD BACK IN FRI EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG
AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-135.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 454 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE MAIN DAYS FOR VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ARE MONDAY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THEN TUESDAY IN
NORTH CENTRAL. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 15-25% IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 15-25 MPH WINDS.
THERE ARE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEADING UP TO
THESE DAYS IN THE MENTIONED LOCATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREEN UP COULD START TO REDUCE THE FIRE
WEATHER RISK.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...VJP
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...VJP
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