285
FXUS63 KICT 101222
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
722 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COUPLE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TODAY IS THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM THE MID 50S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE LOWER 70S
ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. OTHERWISE THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
THE REST OF THE SEVEN DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 454 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH TODAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS, FRONTAL POSITION IS FROM DODGE CITY TO MCPHERSON TO
MANHATTAN. IT IS MOVING SLIGHTLY QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PLAY A ROLE FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
DAY. THERE HAVE BEEN TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION IN THE STATE
(SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST) THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WHICH HAVE
SLOWLY MOVED EAST. GIVEN WHAT HAS OCCURRED SO FAR, THE ACTIVITY
IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS COULD MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT RECENT TRENDS HAVE SHOWED A DISSIPATION AS IT
REACHES LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
WERE KEPT AROUND 20-40% FOR THE MORNING HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IN
NORTHEAST KANSAS IS STARTING TO DROP MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH WOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS; THEREFORE THE CHANCES
ARE 30-50% FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A LATER
ARRIVAL TIME; TODAY IS THE COOLEST DAY IN THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS,
BUT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT IS A FACTOR WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES AS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT
COULD HALT NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER INTO THE OZARKS. INSTABILITY AND
FORCING SHOULD BE ADEQUATE WITH THE COLD FRONT WHERE CAPE IS FROM
1500-2500 J/KG FROM 18-0Z, BUT THE SHEAR IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE (20-
30 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK) EVEN WHEN COMPARED TO WHAT OCCURRED THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BETTER INSTABILITY
IS IN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THIS, A COUPLE OF STRONG TO MARGINAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO BE IN
THE COUNTIES BORDERING OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS IF SOMETHING
WERE TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE NICKEL TO MAYBE QUARTER
SIZED HAIL AND 50-60 MPH WINDS. STRONGER CONVECTION IS DEPENDENT ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH WHERE IT MAY DECIDE TO
HOLD UP. IF IT MAINTAINS ITS PUSH SOUTH, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MAY
END UP IN OKLAHOMA AND OZARKS INSTEAD. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THE
CURRENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A RIDGE FURTHER SHIFTS IN FROM THE
WEST. IT MAY END UP BEING JUST LOW CLOUDS.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE PUSHING
EAST TO CAP OFF THE WEEKEND. A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT COULD
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE RISK IS MARGINAL IN
PART DUE TO THE LACK OF SUPPORT ALOFT. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL WAVES TO START OFF NEXT
WEEK. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACKS OF THESE SYSTEMS
LOWERING THE CONFIDENCE IN WHAT OCCURS. BETTER MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD, BUT
IT IS THE DETAILS THAT ARE UNCERTAIN. STAY TUNED. THERE ARE EVEN
GREATER MODEL DISCREPANCIES FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
CHALLENGING ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS WINDOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST ARE GENERALLY FROM THE
MID 70S TO MID 80S WHICH ARE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
CONCERNS:
1) MVFR & IFR CONDITIONS REDUCING TO LIFR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT
2) SHOWERS & A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING & AGAIN LATER
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN KANSAS
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED PRIMARILY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT IS DRAPED OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH SWITCHING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO FILL IN MORE OF SOUTHERN
KANSAS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH THE DAY, SO IT WAS DECIDED TO
LEAVE AT LEAST VICINITY WORDING IN FOR NOW AT KCNU. IF THE
FRONT STALLS, A STRONGER STORM COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN OKLAHOMA THEREFORE
NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED FOR THE CNU. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
POOL IN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT TO FURTHER DROP CONDITIONS DOWN
TO LIFR FOR RSL, GBD, SLN AND HUT. THERE COULD BE DRIZZLE TO
REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AS WELL, BUT IT WAS DECIDED TO LET
UPCOMING FORECASTERS ASSESS THE POTENTIAL GIVEN THE TIME PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 454 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
THE MAIN DAYS FOR VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ARE MONDAY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THEN TUESDAY IN
NORTH CENTRAL. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 15-25% IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 15-25 MPH WINDS.
THERE ARE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LEADING UP TO
THESE DAYS IN THE MENTIONED LOCATIONS. THIS ALONG WITH THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GREEN UP COULD START TO REDUCE THE FIRE
WEATHER RISK.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...VJP
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...VJP
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