202
FXUS63 KICT 102016
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TO START NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS A POTENT UPPER WAVE SWIRLS JUST OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A COLD FRONT JUST
SOUTH OF THE KANSAS-OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT TO SEE ACTIVITY
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING LATER THIS EVENING, THOUGH
INSTABILITY AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 20-30
KT RANGE MAY PROMOTE A HANDFUL OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
IN FAR SOUTHERN KS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL KS LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASE WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, THOUGH ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
A MAJORITY OF SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE LLJ VEERS OUT AND DISSIPATES SATURDAY
MORNING. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH
A MAJORITY OF THE DAY AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD. THIS
BREAK MAY BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, WITH LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. PER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, A LACK
OF SUPPORT ALOFT MAY PRECLUDE CHANCES FOR GREATER COVERAGE DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME, SO CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON IS
SOMEWHAT LOW. CHANCES WERE HELD TO AROUND 20-30% TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER WAVE
BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
RESIDING PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL CONTINUE EJECTING INTO THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAINING FROM THE MORNING WILL IMPACT AFTERNOON ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER, SHOULD STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE PROGGED
TO SETUP WEST OF I-135, LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. THIS
SEVERE SETUP REMAINS CONDITIONAL ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE AS WELL;
AN OVERALL LACK OF SHEAR MAY RESULT IN MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. A
BETTER SIGNAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARRIVES MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO
THE PLAINS. DETAILS REMAIN A BIT UNCLEAR FOR NOW, THOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE
DURING THE TIMEFRAME AT THIS POINT. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
LOW CLOUDS AND POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL
KANSAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME
FRAME. MEANWHILE LOW CIGS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS REDEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATER TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE 15-
25% RANGE ARE FORECAST TO LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE COMING DAYS MAY ALLOW
FOR A GREEN UP AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCTION IN FIRE WEATHER RISK.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...JWK
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