653
FXUS63 KICT 111221
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
721 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.
- SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE LIKELY (70-90%
CHANCES) FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE STARTING
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TO START NEXT WEEK
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
OVERNIGHT FOG PERSISTS WITH THE GREATEST VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS (LINCOLN TO RICE COUNTIES AND WEST) DOWN TO 1/2 MILE
OR LESS. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM WITH
IMPROVEMENTS POSSIBLE EVEN PRIOR TO THAT EXPIRATION TIME. WHILE FOG
DID DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL, IT IS NOT AS DENSE AND BRIEFLY
LASTING AROUND 1/2 MILE. JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FOG, CONVECTION
DEVELOPED WITH THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT, WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THE LOW LEVEL JET AS EXPECTED; THIS ACTIVITY HAS
STAYED ACROSS FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST KANSAS TRACKING NORTHEAST.
MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD STAY WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION AS
THOUGHT PREVIOUSLY GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THERE
ARE INCREASING CHANCES (30-40%) IN THE AFTERNOON FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION;
HOWEVER, THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVERNIGHT AS A WAVE PUSHES EAST INTO THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH
BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING IN OKLAHOMA THEN
TRACKING NORTHEAST EAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AFTER 6Z (1AM) POSSIBLY CLOSER TO 9Z (4AM). HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE WITH 60-90% CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GIVEN LIMITED
INSTABILITY OVER THE IMPACTED AREA. RAIN COULD LAST INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FURTHER WEST. AS A DRYLINE SETS UP TO DIVIDE KANSAS ALMOST IN
HALF, THIS COULD PROMPT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH 1.5-3K J/KG
CAPE AVAILABLE COMBINED WITH 30-40 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR ANY
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT JUST TO THE WEST AFTER 21Z (4PM) AND MOVING
EAST INTO AN AREA FOLLOWING THE EARLY MORNING RAIN. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS, VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS
AND EVEN A TORNADO COULD BE IN PLAY BUT IT ALL DEPENDS IF
SOMETHING WOULD DEVELOP.
FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE RIDGE, WE MOVE INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME FOR THE START OF THE WEEK IN CONCERT WITH A FEW OF WAVES
TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL APPEAR
TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND
EVEN A FEW TORNADOES. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LOCATION AND
TIMING WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE REFINED IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.
THE ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS ACTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WORK/SCHOOL WEEK.
TEMPERATURES: HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST FROM THE MID
70S TO MID 80S WHICH ARE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 70S. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WARM LOW RECORDS TO BE SET FROM SUNDAY TO
TUESDAY. A COOL DOWN COULD BE IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING US
DOWN EVEN BELOW NORMAL FOR SATURDAY. THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME FOR
THIS TO CHANGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
CONCERNS:
1) LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
2) SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES BY 18Z.
THE TIMING MAY NEED TO BE TWEAKED DEPENDING ON OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS FROM OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS FOR CNU LATE IN THE PERIOD, SO A
PREVAILING -SHRA WAS ADDED. OTHERWISE VCSH WAS USED FOR SLN, HUT
AND ICT. WHILE THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OR TWO, INSTABILITY IS
MUCH FURTHER WEST THROUGH THAT PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS RETURN
OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THERE COULD BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE
IN THIS TIME PERIOD IS TOO LOW TO MAKE ANY MENTION WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
THE MAIN DAYS FOR VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ARE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOR PRIMARILY PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS (RUSSELL AND
BARTON COUNTIES). MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (RH) ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM 15-25% IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH 15-25 MPH
WINDS. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE GREEN UP COULD
HELP REDUCE THE FIRE RISK. UNFORTUNATELY THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAIN TO BE SOUTH AND EAST.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-033-
047-048-050.
DISCUSSION...VJP
AVIATION...VJP
FIRE WEATHER...VJP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page