685
FXUS63 KICT 120755
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
255 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND AGAIN ON MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH AN ISOLATED STORM
ALONG THE DRYLINE.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE
MAY ARRIVE ON TUESDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES POSSIBLE NEXT FRIDAY-
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN OK WILL LIFT INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE TONIGHT WHILE LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS
THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SOME SUBTLE AFTERNOON HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS A NONZERO CHANCE FOR A ROGUE STORM OR TWO
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK TOWARD 00Z AND THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED. STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES/ML CAPE OVER
1500 J/KG AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
35 KNOTS WOULD SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ASSUMING A STORM CAN DEVELOP.
THE DRYLINE IS PROGGED TO MIX FURTHER EASTWARD AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY
WITH DEEP VERTICAL MIXING/STRONG WINDS IMPACTING LOCATIONS IN THE
WAKE OF THE DRYLINE. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL RESULT IN VERY DRY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER ANTICIPATED FOR
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS. ONCE AGAIN, WE COULD SEE AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM OR TWO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE LATE MONDAY AS THE CAP WEAKENS. IF AN ISOLATED STORM CAN
DEVELOP, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MLCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY BRIEF ALONG THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR
BEFORE THE CAP RETURNS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
TUESDAY...A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD. VERY STRONG WINDS ARE PROGGED THROUGH
THE COLUMN WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR PROGGED AROUND 60-70 KT. GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT, AN EARLIER INITIATION
SEEMS POSSIBLE AS THE CAP WEAKENS AROUND MIDDAY OR POSSIBLY EVEN
SOONER. EARLY CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE
WEATHER AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER, IF THE CAP CAN
HOLD A BIT LONGER, THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT MORE SUPERCELL STORMS
WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS WE MOVE INTO WED BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PROGRESSION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AND SOME POPS WERE MAINTAINED IN
SOUTHEAST KS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT UNCERTAINTY. SEASONABLY MILD AIR IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S ON
WED.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS A MID/UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. MEANWHILE, THE NEXT VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA. THIS MID/UPPER
TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
FRIDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE WITH
ACTIVITY ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT, AS WELL AS STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG A DRYLINE. THE WARM SECTOR IS PROGGED TO BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KNOTS RETURNS. THIS WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY ON
SUNDAY COULD RESULT IN SOME FROST AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE OVERNIGHT SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME LOWER CEILINGS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING OUT
OF CENTRAL TX WITH A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION TIED TO IT.
THIS AREA OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS AROUND 09Z AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS IN THE 11-14Z TIME
FRAME. SO AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS KICT AND ESPECIALLY KCNU
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT SHOWERS AND STORMS, GENERALLY AFTER
09Z. AREA OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD
MOVE OUT OF KICT BY 15-16Z AND WILL LINGER AT KCNU THROUGH
AROUND 19-20Z. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF A DRYLINE WHERE
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS. DEEP VERTICAL
MIXING WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE AREA
OF CONCERN WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 14 OR ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM LINCOLN TO ELLSWORTH TO KINGMAN TO HARPER. OTHERWISE,
SPRING GREEN-UP AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD KEEP GRASSFIRE
DANGER IN CHECK FOR MOST AREAS, ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING
IN A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR RUSSELL AND BARTON COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...MWM
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