101
FXUS63 KICT 130523
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1223 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AND AGAIN MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY, COOL DOWN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
- EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WEST OF I-135 MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
PRECIPITATION:
LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...IN WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S DEPARTING
UPPER WAVE, LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION NEAR AND AFTER PEAKING
HEATING IS NOTED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD TEND TO
SUPPRESS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING. HOWEVER, SOME DECENT DRYLINE CONVERGENCE AS NOTED
BY MANY SHORT-TERM MODELS *MAY* BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 5-10 PM, GENERALLY WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS. A
FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY WOULD SUPPORT A
SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WITH ANYTHING THAT CAN
MANAGE TO FORM. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE CONDITIONAL SCENARIO, AS
ALL CAM SOLUTIONS STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP A STORM.
MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON--EVENING...SIMILAR TO TODAY, MONDAY'S SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS CONDITIONAL, AS STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE GIVEN MODEST DRYLINE CONVERGENCE, LITTLE TO NO UPPER
FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT, AND THE LIKELY PRESENCE OF AT LEAST
MODEST CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. HOWEVER, IF A STORM IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP, A VERY FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND 40-50
KTS OF EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE
DRYLINE WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS. AREA AND TIME WOULD BE 5-10 PM GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SALINA TO HUTCHINSON TO ANTHONY EAST THROUGH THE
FLINT HILLS.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INTERACTS WITH A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR ALONG/EAST OF A SHARPENING DRYLINE. THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY
AND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. OF
NOTE...IT SEEMS THE FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS HAVE BECOME A
BIT MORE PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING DRYLINE, AND LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS MODEST TO STRONG. THESE FACTORS COULD LEAD TO AN
EARLIER INITIATION AND MORE OF A MESSY/MIXED STORM MODE, POSSIBLY
CUTTING INTO HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...WITH GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS
HANGING BACK THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH, THE PRE-DRYLINE
WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE REGION FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, MAINLY
EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT, BUOYANCY AND
SHEAR COMBINATION WOULD FAVOR A SEVERE THREAT, ALTHOUGH STRONG
FORCING AND PARALLEL SHEAR VECTORS WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A
MIXED/MESSY STORM MODE AND LIMIT A HIGHER-END SEVERE THREAT.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS A RELOADING WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BY LATE WEEK,
AS ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. A SHARPENING
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR LOOK TO BE PRESENT. THIS COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS (POSSIBLY SEVERE) AS WE HEAD INTO LATE FRIDAY. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT, STAY TUNED.
TEMPERATURES/WIND:
GIVEN RATHER PERSISTENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED LEE
TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS ENTIRE WORK
WEEK. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND THURSDAY,
WHEN LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR
MOST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, MODEL
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A COOL DOWN IN WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, WITH
POTENTIAL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND EVEN
POSSIBLE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME LOW CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO MON
MORNING.
CURRENTLY HAVE A TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THROUGH WESTERN KS AND INTO WEST TX. EAST OF THE DRYLINE
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH WITH SOME MVFR CIGS RECENTLY
MOVING INTO KICT AND KCNU. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL REMAIN FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KICT AND POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO
KHUT. HOWEVER, THEY WILL LINGER MUCH LONGER AT KCNU, LIKELY
THROUGH MOST OF MON MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT MOST
SITES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MON, WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH LIKELY
AT MOST SITES FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
MONDAY--TUESDAY...LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
JUST WEST OF A DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPGRADED
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING MONDAY, AND ISSUED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, SPRING GREEN-UP AMIDST RATHER
HIGH DAYTIME HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD KEEP GRASSFIRE DANGER IN CHECK
FOR MOST AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-135 THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...ADK
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