315
FXUS63 KICT 131142
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
642 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WEST OF I-135 THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A ROGUE STORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION
GIVEN A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY.
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK, ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
IMPACT THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WHILE WE
REMAIN UNDER SOME SUBTLE RIDGING WITHIN THE MID LVL FLOW. THE
NAM/RAP/HRRR ARE ALL MIXING THE DRYLINE MUCH FURTHER EAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. SOME MIX THE DRYLINE INTO THE
FLINT HILLS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE IT RETREATS WESTWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. POINT SOUNDINGS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION AROUND THE
H8 LEVEL WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING IN THE
WAKE OF THE DRYLINE WILL MIX DOWN HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WITH SOME GUSTS
OF 40-50 MPH. SOUTHWEST WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WERE TRENDED HIGHER
FOR THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE DRYLINE BUT WE MAY STILL BE TOO
LOW ON SPEEDS. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH NO CHANGES TO
THE RED FLAG WARNING.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES LATE ON TUESDAY. VERY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL
BEGIN TO NOSE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE,
THE PERSISTENT DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN AND
WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
21Z. VERY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE BUOYANCY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS WILL ALL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. AS THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED, THE DRYLINE IS NOW PROGGED TO LIE IN THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FASHION, MORE SIMILAR TO THE ORIENTATION OF
THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WHICH COULD IMPACT STORM MODE TO SOME
DEGREE.
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE
HANGING AROUND IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WED AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
VEERED FLOW MAY LIMIT CONVERGENCE ON THE BOUNDARY INITIALLY, BUT
SHEAR/BUOYANCY WOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS BRINGING A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO SOUTHEAST KS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY TRY TO RETURN NNW WED NIGHT WORKING BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WHICH COULD RESULT IN RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.
A MID/UPPER RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON
THURSDAY. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA WITH MILD, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAILING.
ANOTHER VIGOROUS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES LATE ON
FRIDAY. A 120 KNOT UPPER JET WILL ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NOSING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD 00Z. A SHARP DRYLINE MAY
BECOME A FOCUS FOR STORMS LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE WITH A LINE OF STORMS RACING SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO SEE A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE ALL HAZARDS INITIALLY, WHILE A LINE OF
STORMS MAY EVOLVE LATE ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
SAT-SUN...AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AREA, DRIER MORE STABLE AND SEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE ON
SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA EARLY ON
SUNDAY WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE
ON SUNDAY WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS AND A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY SLOW LEVEL FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE KANSAS TURNPIKE THIS MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST BY AROUND 14Z AT KICT AND BY 17-18Z AT KCNU.
MEANWHILE, SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON. A
DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TOWARD THE FLINT HILLS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE WSW BEHIND THE DRYLINE WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL KS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF A DRYLINE WHERE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL
ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE AREA OF CONCERN
WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF I-135. OTHERWISE, SPRING GREEN-UP AND HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE FIRE DANGER IN CHECK FOR
MOST AREAS, ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING
IN A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR RUSSELL AND BARTON COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...MWM
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