425
FXUS63 KICT 132014
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
314 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY, COOL DOWN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
- EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WEST OF I-135 THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
PRECIPITATION:
LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...TODAY'S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS
CONDITIONAL, AS STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE GIVEN ONLY
MODEST DRYLINE CONVERGENCE AND LITTLE TO NO UPPER FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. HOWEVER, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS A BIT RICHER COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME, WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WEAKER CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS SOME CAM SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF A STORM OR TWO IS ABLE TO DEVELOP, A
FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF STRONG BUOYANCY AND 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE WOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS. AREA AND TIME
WOULD BE 5-10 PM GENERALLY ALONG/EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AREN'T QUITE AS CLEAR CUT FOR LATE TUESDAY,
WITH THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY INCREASING. WITH THE UPPER WAVE SLOWING
DOWN SOME, DRYLINE CONVERGENCE LOOKS ONLY MODEST BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY PROVE CHALLENGING FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. HOWEVER, AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES LARGE SCALE FORCING
INCREASING FROM THE WEST IN CONCERT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPING
UP SHOULD SUPPORT AN EVENTUAL UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.
ADDITIONALLY, ANY STORMS THAT FORM MAY TEND TO EVOLVE TOWARD
MIXED/MESSY MODE, DUE TO A DECENT COMPONENT OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE NE-SW DRYLINE, WHICH WOULD TEND TO CUT INTO
HIGHER-END SEVERE POTENTIAL.
DESPITE THESE UNCERTAINTIES, WE WILL CONTINUE MESSAGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE STRONG COMBINATION OF
SHEAR/BUOYANCY AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. AREA AND TIME WOULD BE
GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM HARPER TO WICHITA
TO HILLSBORO BETWEEN ABOUT 4PM AND MIDNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS HANGING BACK THE
PARENT UPPER TROUGH, THE PRE-DRYLINE WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY
SHOULD REMAIN INTACT ACROSS THE REGION FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. HOWEVER, THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CONTINGENT
ON HOW WIDESPREAD TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS. IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT, BUOYANCY AND SHEAR COMBINATION WOULD FAVOR A
SEVERE THREAT, ALTHOUGH STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR VECTORS MOSTLY
PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A MIXED/MESSY/LINEAR
STORM MODE AND LIMIT A HIGHER-END SEVERE THREAT.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A RELOADING WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE SECTOR BY LATE
WEEK, AS ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. A SHARPENING
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR LOOK TO BE PRESENT. THIS COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS (POSSIBLY SEVERE) AS WE HEAD INTO LATE FRIDAY. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND
AMPLITUDE OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES, STAY TUNED.
TEMPERATURES/WIND:
GIVEN RATHER PERSISTENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED LEE
TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS ENTIRE WORK
WEEK. THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TODAY, TUESDAY, AND THURSDAY, WHEN
LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR MOST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, MODEL
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A COOL DOWN IN WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT, WITH
POTENTIAL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND EVEN
POSSIBLE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KS SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHILE MVFR CEILINGS MAY
IMPACT CNU TUESDAY MORNING.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL KS. GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SUBSIDE
BY SUNSET, THOUGH SUSTAINED SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10-15 KTS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH LLWS IMPACTING ICT AND CNU THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. FINALLY, INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MVFR CEILINGS AT CNU
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE (15%) FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS IMPACTING
CNU LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION, DECIDED TO LEAVE A MENTION OUT FOR THIS
CYCLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
TODAY--TUESDAY...LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
JUST WEST OF A DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY. RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9PM THIS EVENING WEST OF I-135,
AND THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, SPRING GREEN-UP AMIDST RATHER HIGH DAYTIME
HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD KEEP GRASSFIRE DANGER IN CHECK FOR MOST AREAS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-135 THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047-048-050-067-082-091.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047-048-050-067-082-091.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JWK
FIRE WEATHER...ADK
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