548
FXUS63 KICT 140703
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
203 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.
- EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WEST OF I-135 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
- A COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO MOVE ENE INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE TODAY BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, THE DRYLINE WILL BE ON THE MOVE
AND IS EXPECTED TO MIX EASTWARD AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY WITH DEEP
LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ANTICIPATED IN A DEEPLY MIXED PBL.
HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BACK LATE IN THE DAY AS THE
SFC LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RETURN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND PARTS OF CENTRAL KS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY IN THE EVENING WHICH MAKES FOR A
COMPLICATED FORECAST. THE BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WHEN STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR IS PROGGED TO HAVE MID 60
DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN 2500+ J/KG OF MLCAPE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50+ KNOTS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME SUPERCELL STORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR. A TORNADO THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY IN THE EARLY EVENING AS THE LLJ
RAMPS UP. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER BEYOND MIDNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WE HAVE MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH COULD IMPACT WHAT UNFOLDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BUT GIVEN QUALITY MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND
WHAT APPEARS TO BE RATHER WEAK INHIBITION, WE MAY NOT NEED MUCH OF A
BREAK BEFORE STORMS REDEVELOP.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA, WE
WILL SEE MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN MILD AN DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND INTO THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, A NOCTURNAL LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
NOSE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS EARLY ON FRIDAY WHERE WE COULD SEE A
ROGUE STORM OR TWO DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. HOWEVER, BETTER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE IN
THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE CONTINUE TO SEE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS FEATURE WILL EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES
LATE ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL IMPACT THE MAGNITUDE AND COVERAGE OF
SEVERE STORMS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
SAT-MON...A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL AIR EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST AREAS. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN WE
COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FROST DEVELOP AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE 30S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SUN-MON WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS
SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
RAMPS UP. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
IMPACTING KCNU THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 35-40 KNOTS AT TIMES ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EASTWARD OVER THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE AFTER 21-22Z WITH SEVERE STORMS
LIKELY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY FOR AREAS WEST
OF INTERSTATE 135 WITH VERY DRY AIR AND STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM. DRY AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK AND WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL
RETURN FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...MWM
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