334
FXUS63 KICT 141929
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
229 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING, AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY, COOL DOWN FOR THE
WEEKEND.
- VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WEST OF I-135
TODAY, AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THUNDERSTORMS:
THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 3-4PM, GENERALLY ALONG/EAST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM MEDICINE LODGE TO HUTCHINSON TO MCPHERSON,
AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DRASTICALLY INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO A
CURRENTLY VEERED OUT DRYLINE RETREATING RAPIDLY BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST. OF NOTE...THICK MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST (MORE WIDESPREAD THAN FORECAST), WHICH MAY
LIMIT PEAK HEATING, INCREASE CAPPING, SUPPORT A LATER INITIATION
TIME, AND RAISE QUESTIONS ON HOW MANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
BREACH THE CAP. NEVERTHELESS, A STRONG COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM. THINKING THE TORNADO THREAT
WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN ROUGHLY 5/6PM AND 9/10PM WITH ANY DISCRETE
OR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS, AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH. REGARDING STORM MODE/TYPE...WHILE AN
ADEQUATE COMPONENT OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE DRYLINE, THERE IS A MODEST COMPONENT ORIENTED PARALLEL AS
WELL, WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MIXED/LINEAR STORM
MODE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, ESPECIALLY
IF STORM COVERAGE PROVES FAIRLY NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD.
OVERNIGHT, WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DECREASING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION, THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL KS IN WAKE OF THIS EVENING'S
DEPARTING ACTIVITY. IF CAPPING DOESN'T PROVE TOO DETRIMENTAL,
SHEAR/BUOYANCY COMBINATION WOULD FAVOR A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ADEQUATELY
RECOVER THE PRE-DRYLINE AIRMASS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.
GIVEN THE STRONGER FORCING, THINKING STORM INITIATION COULD BE AS
EARLY AS 2-3PM. ANOTHER STRONG COMBINATION OF BUOYANCY AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR A SEVERE THREAT, ALTHOUGH WE'RE THINKING
THE STRONG FORCING IN CONCERT WITH THE SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED MOSTLY
PARALLEL TO THE DRYLINE WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A MIXED/MESSY/LINEAR
STORM MODE, WHICH COULD TEND TO LIMIT A HIGHER-END SEVERE THREAT.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A RELOADING WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE SECTOR BY LATE
WEEK, AS ANOTHER WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS. A SHARPENING
DRYLINE/COLD FRONT COMBINATION ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND
STRONG SHEAR LOOK TO BE PRESENT. THIS COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO LATE FRIDAY. STILL
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND
AMPLITUDE OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES, STAY TUNED.
TEMPERATURES/WIND:
GIVEN RATHER PERSISTENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED LEE
TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS ENTIRE WORK WEEK. THE
WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TODAY, THURSDAY, AND FRIDAY WHEN LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR MOST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COOL DOWN IN WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT,
WITH POTENTIAL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND
EVEN POSSIBLE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD, WHILE SITES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS MAY SEE
MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE WEAKENING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TURNING MORE
TO THE WEST, ESPECIALLY AT CENTRAL KS SITES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITH AN
EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST STORMS DEVELOP; AS
SUCH, MAINTAINED THE PROB30 GROUPS FOR ICT AND CNU WITH THIS CYCLE
WITH SLIGHT CHANGES TO EXPECTED WINDOW FOR IMPACTS. STORMS
MAY EVEN DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AS HUT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
FOR A MENTION THERE FOR THE 18Z ISSUANCE.
FINALLY, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWING INTO SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BRING MVFR TO NEAR-IFR CEILINGS
TO CNU EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHORT-TERM MODELS GIVE THESE
LOW CHANCES (20%) FOR IMPACTING ICT, SO STAY TUNED TO UPCOMING
FORECAST CYCLES AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
TODAY...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST WEST OF
A DRYLINE WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
8PM THIS EVENING WEST OF I-135.
FRIDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST OF SALINA TO HUTCHINSON.
STAY TUNED AS WE REFINE FORECAST DETAILS IN THE COMING DAYS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047-048-050-067-082-091.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...JWK
FIRE WEATHER...ADK
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