378
FXUS63 KICT 151119
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
619 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY, BRIEF COOL
DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND.
- A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135 ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER MAY RETURN FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135 SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AN ELONGATED MID/UPPER TROUGH STRETCHED FROM SOUTH DAKOTA SSW OVER
THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD EMERGING OVER THE PLAINS STATES TODAY.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, A DRYLINE ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS WILL
BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WARM SECTOR
IS PROGGED TO BE WEAKLY CAPPED WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ARE PROGGED TO
BE IN A SIMILAR ORIENTATION TO THE BOUNDARY LEADING TO A MESSY
STORM MODE BUT WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WITH THE
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AS WE REMAIN WITHIN AN ENHANCED SOUTHWEST
MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME. ANY DISCRETE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE/VERY LARGE HAIL AND A TORNADO BEFORE WE START TO
SEE MORE CLUSTERING TOWARD EVENING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 8-9 PM.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA, WE
WILL SEE MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN MILD AN DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 80S AREAWIDE.
A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION AND INTO THE ROCKIES LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, A NOCTURNAL LLJ IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS
EARLY ON FRIDAY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE CAP WILL PRECLUDE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL BISECT KANSAS AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID-
AFTERNOON AS THE CAP WEAKENS. SIMILAR TO WED, WE SEE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VECTORS IN A SIMILAR ORIENTATION TO THE COLD FRONT LEADING
TO ANOTHER MESSY STORM MODE SITUATION. A LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IS FAVORED AS THE FRONT RACES SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MID-LVL WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
MAY LEAD TO SOME POST-FRONTAL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT.
SAT-TUE...A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
AREA AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLY COOL AIR EXPECTED.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 60 FOR MOST AREAS. AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN WE
COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF FROST DEVELOP AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE 30S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS SUN-TUE WITH RISING HEIGHTS/INCREASING THICKNESS
SUPPORTING RISING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY REACHING THE 80S IN CENTRAL KS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE LINGERING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE, BUT VFR SHOULD RETURN TO ICT BY 14-15Z
WHILE LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING AT KCNU. WINDS WILL VEER TO
WEST AND SOUTHWEST IN CENTRAL KS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST
KS. MAINTAINED A PROB30 GROUP FOR CNU THROUGH 02Z WITH THIS
ISSUANCE WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL KANSAS ON THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY WHILE VERY DRY AIR WILL ALSO LINGERS. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ON
THURSDAY WHILE RISING INTO THE 25-30 PERCENT RANGE ON FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY. A VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL DEVELOP FOR AREAS WEST OF I-135 ON BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
AREAS WEST OF I-135.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...MWM
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