148
FXUS63 KICT 161743
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1243 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A BRIEF COOL
DOWN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
- PERIODIC ELEVATED GRASSFIRE DANGER, HIGHEST THIS AFTERNOON IN
PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MOVING
EAST/NORTHEAST WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES WAS
BEGINNING TO EMERGE OVER THE PLAINS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING
DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S. YESTERDAY'S FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ONLY MADE IT INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BEFORE STALLING,
AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS DRAPED JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS POISED TO RETURN AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS RESUME DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS TODAY. SOME FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MIX OUT
QUICKLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WHILE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION IS PROGGED
TO MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT. DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL STRENGTHEN WITH A
60 KNOT H85 LLJ PROGGED OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF
THE MID/UPPER FLOW THROUGH AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
POINT SOUNDINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS ON FRIDAY NIGHT SUGGEST THAT THE
CAP WILL KEEP A LID ON DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AS THE LLJ RAMPS UP,
BUT IF AN ISOLATED STORM CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ,
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. A MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL SURGE IS NOW
ANTICIPATED WITH THE FRONT BISECTING CENTRAL KS BY 18Z ON FRIDAY.
THE CAP SHOULD WEAKEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON (17-19Z) WITH MLCAPE
PROGGED OVER 2500 J/KG AND VERY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 60+ KNOTS. ANY DISCRETE CELLS WITH THE INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES GIVEN A VERY FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH BUT CONFIDENCE IN
DISCRETE CELLS REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN DEEP LAYER
FLOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEADING TO MESSY STORM MODES WHILE
QUICKLY EVOLVING INTO A QLCS. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. IT WILL BE
HARD TO RULE OUT A COUPLE OF MESOVORTEX CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE
LINE GIVEN LARGE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
BUOYANCY. THE LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST KS
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, PERHAPS A BIT SOONER WITH A STABLE POST-
FRONTAL REGIME BUILDING OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SAT BUT BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY AS WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE INFLUENCE FROM
THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES LEADING TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MON-WED AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID/UPPER
RIDGE. MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 70S INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR CENTRAL
KS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
LOW CEILINGS HAVE DISSIPATED AT KHUT AND KICT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER LOW CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AT KCNU FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. ONCE THOSE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH THE
NIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS. OVERNIGHT WINDS APPROXIMATELY
1500-2000 FT AGL WILL REALLY RAMP UP TO AROUND 50-55 KTS. SO
DESPITE THE BREEZY SURFACE CONDITIONS WINDS THAT STRONG ALOFT
COULD STILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LLWS AT MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO
DIMINISH. TOWARDS SUNRISE ON FRIDAY MORNING, AS MOISTURE LIFTS
NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA, ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AT LEAST KCNU BUT SPREAD AS FAR WEST AS
KICT AND KHUT. IF THESE CEILINGS DEVELOP IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
WILL LAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE
TOMORROW MORNING SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH BEHIND IT
AND LEADING TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT AS
WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY DRY AIR AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND A RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MAY SUPPORT VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS.
A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL RETURN FOR AREAS WEST OF I-
135 FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING TO THE AREA.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...WI
FIRE WEATHER...MWM
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