896
FXUS63 KICT 021846
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
146 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SETTLED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KS THROUGH UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KS. TRANSITIONING INTO
TONIGHT, THE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN AREAWIDE. THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA SUNDAY, GRADUALLY SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY, THE RESULTANT DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE 80S.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP SOUTHWESTERN US TROUGH
PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. NAM/GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE LARGELY
AGREE THAT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILES (5.5-6 C/KM) WILL REMAIN
QUITE UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY ROBUST CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW PATTERN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING NEAR 10 KT. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL FROM ROUGHLY 07-13Z BUT HAVE WITHHELD AT THIS TIME AS
MAGNITUDES FALL SHORT OF LLWS CRITERIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN ULTIMATE WIND
SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page