202
FXUS63 KICT 030523
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1223 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MIDWEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
AS OF 115 PM SATURDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW REMAINS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SETTLED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KS THROUGH UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 70 DEGREES ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEAST KS. TRANSITIONING INTO
TONIGHT, THE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE
AREA TONIGHT, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN AREAWIDE. THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA SUNDAY, GRADUALLY SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND
EVENTUALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER FROM
THE WEST SUNDAY, THE RESULTANT DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE 80S.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP SOUTHWESTERN US TROUGH
PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. NAM/GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE LARGELY
AGREE THAT MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PROFILES (5.5-6 C/KM) WILL REMAIN
QUITE UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY ROBUST CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW PATTERN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
SOUTH WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS, WHILE A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
LATER TODAY TURNS WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST IN CENTRAL KS.
CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW AT THIS TIME IN THE BOUNDARY MAKING IT TO
GBD BEFORE STALLING OUT, SO LEFT OUT WIND SHIFT THERE FOR THIS
CYCLE. SPEEDS AROUND 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE AFTER SUNRISE
WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JWK
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