437
FXUS63 KICT 040530
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1230 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH BETTER
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPING DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN KANSAS.
AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY, THICKNESS WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR AREA AS
UPPER RIDGING INCREASES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH 850-700 MB WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP AID
IN ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE LOOKS TO SETUP
IN SOUTHEAST KS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EXTEND DOWN INTO OKLAHOMA
WITH INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING. STORMS MAY
TRY TO INITIATE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, THOUGH GIVEN THE CIN, STORM
CHANCES MAY STAY LOW UNTIL THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP MONDAY
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE COLD FRONT AND
PUSH IT SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH THE LLJ WILL INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN KS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE SMALL
HAIL GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND 35-
40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE SHORE OF
CALIFORNIA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS LATE TUESDAY AND
PHASING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS IT DIGS
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH 700MB FRONTOGENESIS. GIVEN THE LACK
OF INSTABILITY, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST, UPPER
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS, WHICH WILL SHIFT
FLOW ALOFT BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE REGION. THICKNESS WILL
START TO INCREASE PROMOTING A WARMING TREND STARTING THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE THIS
EVENING, PRIMARILY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS.
LLWS DIAGNOSED AT 1.4 KFT WILL SUBSIDE BY SUNRISE WITH SOUTH WINDS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SPANNING THROUGH CENTRAL KS WILL RESULT IN LARGELY VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT TURNS WINDS
AROUND TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SHORT-TERM MODELS HIGHLIGHT STORM CHANCES ARRIVING LATER THIS
EVENING AND PREVAILING BEYOND THE PERIOD, WITH GREATER CHANCES
RESIDING PRIMARILY AT SLN AND CNU. INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP AFTER
00Z AT THESE SITES PLUS RSL TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE. STAY TUNED TO LATER CYCLES AS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...JWK
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