741
FXUS63 KICT 041714
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1214 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE LAST DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT
BRINGS MUCH COLDER READINGS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING WITH A COUPLE STRONG TO LOW END
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LOW DIGGING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ABOUT TO MOVE INTO ONTARIO. AT THE
SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR KANSAS
CITY TO NEAR GREAT BEND AND INTO FAR SOUTHWEST KS. MEANWHILE, A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT IS STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS ND.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT ALSO CONTINUING TO SURGE SOUTH. BY 00Z, COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STRETCH GENERALLY ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER. CONFIDENCE
IN DAYTIME CONVECTION STILL REMAINS LOW, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT A STORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST WEST OF A
RUSSELL TO GREAT BEND LINE OR DOWN ALONG THE DRYLINE IN CENTRAL
OK. HOWEVER, THE BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL BE AFTER 00Z AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING. FEEL THE BEST
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST KS INTO THE NORTHEAST
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHER MID LEVEL
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE. SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS GIVEN 1500-2000J/KG OF
MUCAPE AND PLENTY OF SHEAR. KEEPING WITH THE THINKING THAT DIME
TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
BY 12Z TUE, COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE. RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH, WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHEAST WINDS
NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT IT WILL NOT LAST MORE THAN AN
HOUR OR TWO. COLD AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TUE,
BUT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER FAR NW KS AND
EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHERN MO. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
TRACKING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH MOST OF
THE ENERGY PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH NEAR
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER WESTERN KS ALONG WITH PARTS OF
CENTRAL KS. THE MAIN DRIVER FOR PRECIP WILL BE MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS ALONG WITH DEEP UPSLOPE FLOW. UPPER TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY SWING EAST WED EVENING, TAKING THE HIGHER RAINFALL
CHANCES WITH IT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY HIGH IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS FOR TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S, WITH EVEN COOLER READINGS
FOR WED, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S.
WE WILL GET BACK INTO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THU, WHICH WILL
ALLOW A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPS, WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
ANTICIPATED FOR FRI INTO SAT. STORM CHANCES WILL THEN RETURN FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS A FAST MOVING IMPULSE TRACKS OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 KT AT CNU THIS
AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT
20-30 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KT. IN ADDITION, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR SLN AND CNU LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR DIRECT IMPACTS
AT THE TERMINALS FOR ANY MENTION GREATER THAN A PROB30. LOW CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH AT CNU FOR
PREVAILING MVFR MENTION.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...BRF
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