753
FXUS63 KICT 041936
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
236 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY RISK.
- SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY.
- SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UPPER LOW
DIGGING OVER ONTARIO WITH TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AREA. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS SLIDING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW
IS OVER ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPING DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER. A DRYLINE IS SETTING UP IN CENTRAL KS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL
TX. INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO
1500-2000 J/KG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE STORMS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE DRYLINE THOUGH BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL
ARRIVE AFTER 7PM. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
STORM CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN KS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE,
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KS TO APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA THOUGH IT WOULD BE VERY MARGINAL FOR A SHORT
DURATION. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS THOUGH BETTER CHANCES WILL
REMAIN IN NORTHWEST KS INTO NEBRASKA AND IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND
THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S WITH
SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN KS REACHING THE LOW 60S ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE
SHORE OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS LATE TUESDAY AND
PHASE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH
COMBINED WITH 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN WESTERN KS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KS. GIVEN THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES
MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF CENTRAL KS WITH
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES REMAINING IN WESTERN KS. THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY
WITH FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTING BACK TO NORTHWESTERLY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THICKNESS WILL START TO INCREASE PROMOTING A
WARMING TREND STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLY RETURNING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO 25 KT AT CNU THIS
AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT
20-30 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 KT. IN ADDITION, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT NEAR SLN AND CNU LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR DIRECT IMPACTS
AT THE TERMINALS FOR ANY MENTION GREATER THAN A PROB30. LOW CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH AT CNU FOR
PREVAILING MVFR MENTION.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GC
AVIATION...BRF
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