495
FXUS63 KICT 051739
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1239 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN
TO SEASONAL TEMPS FOR THURSDAY. MANY AREAS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL NOT SEE HIGHS MAKE IT OUT OF THE 50S.
- ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH STORM
CHANCES RETURNING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
CURRENTLY HAVE A DEEP BROAD UPPER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING ALL OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE, A CLOSED
UPPER LOW IS ALSO SITUATED OVER CENTRAL CA. AT THE SURFACE
STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR KCNU INTO WESTERN OK.
STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ACROSS THE
FLINT HILLS IN AN AREA OF STRONG 700MB THETA-E ADVECTION NORTH
OF THE COLD FRONT. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THIS
MORNING AS THE BETTER MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALSO SHIFTS
EAST. COLD FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE
WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS MOVING INTO THE
AREA. WE ALSO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND WILL PHASE WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH THE TROUGH FINALLY
SWINGING THROUGH KS BY EARLY THU MORNING. SO WE ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER WESTERN AND PARTS OF
CENTRAL KS FOR TONIGHT INTO WED WITH RAIN CHANCES SINKING SOUTH
FOR WED NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER WESTERN KS.
CONFIDENCE REMAIN VERY HIGH THAT TEMPS TODAY AND WED WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH MANY LOCATIONS NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 50S.
THESE READINGS WILL BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL HIGHS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THU, WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO QUICKLY GET BACK TO NORMAL, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOW 70S. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRI AS WE GET BACK INTO THE 80S WITH THESE WARM READINGS
CONTINUING INTO SAT. STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN AS SOME UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS WAVE TRACKS SOUTHEAST, A
BRIEF COOL DOWN IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, AND A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, THIS ROUND OF
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
RISE, THOUGH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY, WINDS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS TONIGHT, AND THEY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...JC
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