277
FXUS63 KICT 051921
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
221 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
STORM CHANCES RETURNING LATE SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A DEEP TROUGH WAS SITUATED OVER ONTARIO WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WAS ROTATING THROUGH THIS
FEATURE AND WILL ARRIVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME WINTRY WEATHER INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS. MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
LEADING TO CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KANSAS EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING AS WE MOVE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WE STILL EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES
OF RAIN. ANOTHER COOL DAY IS ANTICIPATED WITH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES; AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S
ONCE AGAIN.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AREA ON THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SEASONABLY MILD AIR TO RETURN TO THE
AREA WITH SOME INCREASING INSOLATION AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S. A SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SWEEP OVER
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACTS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW STORMS WITH COOLER AIR ARRIVING IN IT'S WAKE. NORTHWEST
MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL MON-TUE WITH MILD AND MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, AND A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, THIS ROUND OF
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO
RISE, THOUGH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY, WINDS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS TONIGHT, AND THEY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page