155
FXUS63 KICT 070804
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
304 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BACK TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH WARMER READINGS AS WE
HEAD INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
- STORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE, IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EPISODE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE A NUMBER
OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE THE NORTHWEST FLOW; ONE TRACKING OVER
EASTERN SD WITH ANOTHER ONE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OK.
AT THE SURFACE, COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO ALONG
THE GULF COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY WILL TRACK OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT WITH ANY
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, AS THIS WAVE SLIDES SOUTHEAST, A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WITH A SMALL CHANCE THEY MAY AFFECT FAR
SOUTHEAST KS. THIS SAME SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT ON SAT, BUT THIS
TIME WITH A MORE ROBUST UPPER IMPULSE SET TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN ADDITION, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS ALSO SET
TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SAT EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SUN MORNING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KS LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE,
SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO AT LEAST GET SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO EXIT SOUTHERN KS BY
THE LATE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, WE WILL GET BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY WITH
ALL AREAS IN THE 70S. SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR FRI INTO
SAT, WITH WIDESPREAD 80S LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. BEHIND THE WEAK COLD
FRONT, WE WILL GET BACK TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPS FOR SUNDAY.
TO START THE WORK WEEK WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRACK OUT OF
SOUTHERN SK AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUE AFTERNOON.
MAJORITY OF PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THEME FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK
WILL BE A WARMING TREND, WITH SOME 90S EVEN POSSIBLE BY TUE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GOOD AVIATION WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL SWITCH
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS FOR LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ032-047-050-
067-082-091.
DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...CDJ
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