535
FXUS63 KICT 071919
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
219 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS, THEN AGAIN AREAWIDE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A BRIEF COOLDOWN
ON SUNDAY.
- WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS DEPICT A MID/UPPER JET
MAX SPANNING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS SECONDARY MID/UPPER MAX WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY TO OUR NORTH. PER PRIOR FORECAST CYCLES, THIS
UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. LATEST SHORT-TERM MODELS HIGHLIGHT SOUTHEAST KS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AMID MODEST INSTABILITY (1000-1500
J/KG) AND SOLID DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (40-50 KTS). THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
SEVERE HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TRAILING THE
FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK, WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S ON SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THE ENVIRONMENT WITH PERHAPS 500-1000 J/KG AT
MOST OWING TO RELATIVELY WARM ELEVATED TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, SHOULD
BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITHIN THE COLUMN FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT IN THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY RESIDE IN
THE 70S TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESUME TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK, AND WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN, WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND EVEN LOW 90S ARE FORECAST BY TUESDAY. LONG-RANGE MODELS DEPICT A
MID/UPPER WAVE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY TUESDAY
EVENING, WHICH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL IN THE
REGION. DETAILS THIS FAR OUT REMAIN A BIT UNCLEAR, SO CURRENTLY
EXPECTING MOST OF THE AREA TO STAY WARM AND DRY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE
AREA. BRINGING SOME 15 TO 20 KNOT GUSTS AT TIMES. SOME TRANSIENT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHILE VFR IS ANTICIPATED. WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWAD ADVANCING FRONT ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF CNU LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...MWM
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