614
FXUS63 KICT 080707
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
207 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AREAWIDE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- WARMING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE A BRIEF COOLDOWN ON
SUNDAY.
- WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
CURRENTLY, A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
PREVAIL THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. AS THIS BOUNDARY
PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY, WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY, CAPPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S FOR OUR CENTRAL KANSAS LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS, MARGINAL INSTABILITY BETWEEN
1000-1500 J/KG AND 40-50 KTS OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AREAWIDE.
THEN, WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY
EVENING, MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG WILL BE LIMITED TO
LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF K-14 LEADING TO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS THE MAIN CONCERN. SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
POTENTIALLY RECEIVING SOME MEANINGFUL RAINFALL UP TO 0.50". RAIN
WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 70S.
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE PARADE OF FRONTS EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ROCKIES PLACING US SOLIDLY
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. WITH RISING HEIGHTS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 TO START THE
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY
DRAGGING A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL NOT OFFER MUCH IN TERMS OF COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT MAY
BRING ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES, AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24HRS
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY CAUSING THE WINDS TO SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND IMPACT CNU TAF SITE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...CDJ
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