231
FXUS63 KICT 090447
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1147 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER
SOUTHEAST KS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.
- HOT NEXT WEEK (TUE-FRI) WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S FOR MANY AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A PV ANOMALY ROTATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THIS
FRONT MAY BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 20-21Z
WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS. THIS WILL FAVOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE. MODEST MOISTURE IN THE PBL AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH WESTERLY
ORIENTED DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS AROUND 45 KNOTS. WE COULD SEE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE VEERED UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN AND MARGINAL MOISTURE IN THE PBL MAY PRECLUDE
MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD OVER
KANSAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A SUBTLE LLJ NOSES INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KS, WE COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A STABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME IS PROGGED TO BUILD
OVER THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SEASONABLE AIR AND
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS WE
MOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY
IN THE WEEK BEFORE TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD AS WE MOVE THROUGH
THE WEEK. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH THIS RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING A CHANCE OF STORMS TO
THE AREA BUT THE GENERAL THEME WILL BE HOT AND DRY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHILE MVFR/IFR VSBYS
RESIDE IN SOUTHEAST KS.
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT PPF/CFV INDICATE VSBYS BELOW 1SM DUE TO LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE ENCROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. MODEL TRENDS INDICATE
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE
GRADUALLY MIXING OUT BY MID-MORNING. AS SUCH, DECIDED TO TEMPO IFR
AT CNU INTO THE EARLY MORNING BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO PRESENT THEMSELVES. ELSEWHERE, VFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
SHOULD PREVAIL.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. DECIDED TO INTRODUCE PROB30 GROUPS WITH THIS CYCLE FOR
ASSOCIATED IMPACTS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. STAY TUNED TO
UPCOMING ISSUANCES AS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND OBSERVATIONS
BECOME AVAILABLE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JWK
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