623
FXUS63 KICT 091723
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1223 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
CHANCES AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT.
- HOT, WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, NEXT WEEK (TUE-FRI) WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
CURRENTLY, A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
THE CONUS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE EJECTING OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
PASSED THROUGH OUR AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW SITUATED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AS
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ARE
IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AREAWIDE.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING, A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.
MUCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG WILL BE LIMITED TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY
WEST OF K-14, THUS THE MAIN STORM THREAT WILL BE IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH WIND GUSTS THE MAIN CONCERN. AS THE LLJ
DEVELOPS, SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS POTENTIALLY RECEIVING SOME
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL UP TO 0.50". RAIN WILL EXIT THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY WILL BE JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ROCKIES PLACING US SOLIDLY UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. WITH RISING HEIGHTS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES TO START
THE WEEK. A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
TUESDAY, DRAGGING A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL NOT OFFER MUCH IN TERMS OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES, BUT MAY BRING ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES, AND BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME
FRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WINDS CONTINUE SOUTHWESTERLY 8 TO 10KT TO START THE PERIOD BUT WILL
SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KS BETWEEN
22Z AND 00Z. EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND CIGS WITH THOSE
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND POSSIBLY
SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. VERY SPOTTY OVERALL COVERAGE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAKES NARROWING TIMING DIFFICULT, SO HAVE KEPT
LONGER PROB30 GROUPS IN THE TAFS.
BEHIND THE FRONT BETWEEN 01Z AND 06Z, WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AND REMAIN 8 TO 10KTS. SHOWER AND VERY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. MODELS
INDICATE A SECOND ROUND OF MORE STRATIFORM TYPE PRECIPITATION AFTER
06Z TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, BUT FOR CENTRAL KS TERMINALS (KRSL,
KSLN, AND KGBD) EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SECOND ROUND. THUS, HAVE INCLUDED A SECOND PROB30 GROUP TO COVER
THAT CONCERN. OVERALL, CHANCES ARE 20 TO 40% OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY
GIVEN TIME THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD THROUGH AROUND
12Z SUNDAY. IT WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AFTER 14Z.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...CFH
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