002
FXUS63 KICT 261625
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1125 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
A MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE A
VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS, ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING SLOWLY OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PIVOTING
NE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS BOTH OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT MODIFIED MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WE CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS TODAY AND WE
COULD SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA STATE LINE OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. THERE REMAINS
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS GIVEN WEAK MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES/DEEP LAYER SHEAR, SO ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A
SUBTLE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND WE COULD
SEE A BRIEF SHOWER ON OUR SOUTHWEST FLANK ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FLOW
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW.
WED-THU...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. WE CONTINUE TO
REMAIN IN AN UNCAPPED AIRMASS WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS
NORTHWARD, BUT ONCE AGAIN WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL PRECLUDE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY. A MOIST COLUMN IS
PROGGED TO ARRIVE ON WED WITH 1.4 INCH PWATS (90TH PERCENTILE)
SETTING THE STAGE FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL. SHOWERS AND MORE ISOLATED
STORMS MAY FESTER INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STALLS OVER THE AREA. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY WHILE THE PERSISTENT HIGH PWAT AIRMASS LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION BISECTING OUR FORECAST AREA BRINGING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND MORE ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY.
FRI-MON...THE PATTERN MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS WE REMAIN MOIST AND BUOYANT
WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE MAY FINALLY SEE SOME MORE STABLE AIR ARRIVE OVER
THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CURRENTLY HAVE AN UPPER IMPULSE OVER SOUTHWEST TX WITH ANOTHER
UPPER WAVE OVER NORTHERN AR. WIDESPREAD CU WILL BE IN PLACE
TODAY AT ALL SITES ALONG WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE BULK OF THE SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STAY SOUTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. SO AT THIS POINT WILL GO WITH VFR
AT ALL SITES THROUGH 18Z WED.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...RBL
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