024
FXUS63 KICT 270425
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1125 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACTIVE PATTERN, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS JUST
ABOUT EVERY DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINLY DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...A WEAK/SUBTLE UPPER LOW OVER OKLAHOMA
COMBINED WITH AN UNCAPPED AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTHERN KS, MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54. STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH SEASONABLY RICH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS MAY SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
WEDNESDAY--SUNDAY:
THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN, WITH CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY FROM THE LATE
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CULPRITS WILL BE A
HANDFUL OF SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOWS AMIDST ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AND UNCAPPED THERMAL PROFILES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MAY
HAVE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS GIVEN THE UPPER FORCING,
ALTHOUGH SATURDAY-SUNDAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO HAVE DECENT COVERAGE AS
WELL. THE OVERALL SETUP OF RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE
WEATHER, ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT UPTICK IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR FRIDAY-
SATURDAY MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED LOW-END SEVERE RISK THOSE DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE RICH PRECIPITABLE WATERS COMBINED WITH SLOW
STORM MOTIONS WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
FLOODING CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES:
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. THESE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT CNU ARE TOO LOW FOR INTRODUCTION. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KT AT ALL SITES. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, A PROB30 MENTION HAS
BEEN ADDED AT GBD, HUT, AND ICT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...BRF
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