609
FXUS63 KICT 271919
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
219 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS EVENING-
TONIGHT, AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARY HAZARD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FRIDAY--SUNDAY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:
THIS EVENING--THURSDAY NIGHT...A SLOW-MOVING ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, AND PERSISTING OFF-AND-ON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREN'T EXPECTED
GIVEN POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, AND WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR, ALTHOUGH RICH PRECIPITABLE WATERS, RELATIVELY SLOW
STORM MOTIONS, AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. THINKING
MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED 1-
2+ INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED. IN FACT, GIVEN HREF MAX ENSEMBLE MEMBERS,
THINKING A FEW 3+ INCH AMOUNTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS WELL.
FRIDAY--SUNDAY...THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER EASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE
WESTERN CONUS PARENT UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EJECT SLOWLY EAST-
NORTHEAST FRI-SUN, MODESTLY INCREASING THE FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSEQUENT
VERTICAL SHEAR. MEANWHILE, A DRYLINE MAY SHARPEN EACH AFTERNOON-
EVENING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUBSEQUENT FAT BUOYANCY PROFILES COMBINED
WITH A MODEST UPTICK IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A LOW-END
SEVERE THREAT EACH AFTERNOON-EVENING.
MONDAY--WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED
BUOYANT AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON-EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES:
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. THESE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THINKING THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE THURSDAY, WHEN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION KEEP DAYTIME READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 12Z, REMAINING UNDER
10 KNOTS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ISOLATED, BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES BETWEEN 21-06Z. AFTER 06Z, LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH MINIMAL AVIATION
IMPACTS.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN JUST WITHIN VFR LEVELS THROUGH AROUND 12Z,
AT WHICH POINT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR LEVELS
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS
CEILINGS INTO IFR RANGE, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS
POINT.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...AMD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page