391
FXUS63 KICT 272356
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
656 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THIS EVENING-
TONIGHT, AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARY HAZARD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FRIDAY--SUNDAY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:
THIS EVENING--THURSDAY NIGHT...A SLOW-MOVING ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, AND PERSISTING OFF-AND-ON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREN'T EXPECTED
GIVEN POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, AND WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR, ALTHOUGH RICH PRECIPITABLE WATERS, RELATIVELY SLOW
STORM MOTIONS, AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL SUPPORT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. THINKING
MANY AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED 1-
2+ INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED. IN FACT, GIVEN HREF MAX ENSEMBLE MEMBERS,
THINKING A FEW 3+ INCH AMOUNTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS WELL.
FRIDAY--SUNDAY...THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER EASTERN KANSAS FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE
WESTERN CONUS PARENT UPPER LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO EJECT SLOWLY EAST-
NORTHEAST FRI-SUN, MODESTLY INCREASING THE FLOW ALOFT AND SUBSEQUENT
VERTICAL SHEAR. MEANWHILE, A DRYLINE MAY SHARPEN EACH AFTERNOON-
EVENING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUBSEQUENT FAT BUOYANCY PROFILES COMBINED
WITH A MODEST UPTICK IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A LOW-END
SEVERE THREAT EACH AFTERNOON-EVENING.
MONDAY--WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK ENERGY ALOFT COMBINED WITH A CONTINUED
BUOYANT AIRMASS MAY SUPPORT LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON-EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES:
FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. THESE VALUES ARE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THINKING THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE THURSDAY, WHEN CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION KEEP DAYTIME READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.
CURRENTLY HAVE A COUPLE CIRCULATIONS IN THE TROPICAL-LIKE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE IS LIFTING NORTH OUT OF
THE TX PANHANDLE, WITH ANOTHER ONE LIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TX. SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT AROUND 03Z IS WHEN THE BETTER SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE WILL MOVE INTO KICT/KHUT AND WILL SPREAD NORTH THROUGH
THU MORNING, AFFECTING MOST TAF SITES. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE INCREASE IN PRECIP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THU. WHILE
AT LEAST SOME ISO-SCT PRECIP WILL REMAIN THU AFTERNOON, WE MAY
SEE A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER AROUND 18Z.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
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