021
FXUS63 KICT 280723
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
223 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS IS INCREASING LATE IN
THE WEEK A INTO THE WEEKEND (FRI-SUN).
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
NORTHWARD OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE AREA. WE REMAIN IN A VERY HIGH PWAT
AIRMASS AND WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WE COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KS. GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DEEP LAYER SHEAR,
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED BUT WE MAY SEE SOME
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. HREF NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS AROUND
70 PERCENT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS ALONG THE I-135
CORRIDOR. THE CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER RAIN MAY SHIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER OR REDEVELOP AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TRANSLATING THE WESTERN CONUS MID/UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ROTATING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. WE COULD SEE A DIFFUSE
DRYLINE/WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT BECOME A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
CAPPING CONCERNS WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD TROUGH.
SOME INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION BRINGING A
THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS IF STORMS CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP AS RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
SAT...THE WESTERN CONUS MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
ROCKIES WHILE SKIRTING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. THE
DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL KS IS PROGGED TO SHARPEN IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BECOMING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 21Z ALONG THE DRYLINE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 35 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH A CONTINUATION OF RICH MOISTURE IN THE WARM
SECTOR.
AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY, THE MID/UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY INHIBIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION, BUT IT
WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ RAMPS UP AND NOSES INTO
CENTRAL KS.
MON-WED...AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED, CONFIDENCE IN THE
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST REMAINS LOW AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WE CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SUPPORT FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY AS WE
REMAIN IN A BUOYANT AIRMASS, ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM
THE DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE MAY INHIBIT MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL REMAIN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
A NUMBER OF WEAK IMPULSES ARE EVIDENT IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST. FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IT APPEARS SOUTHERN KS WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, AFFECTING MAINLY KICT AND
POTENTIALLY KHUT. AS THE MORNING HOURS APPROACH FEEL THAT
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND CONTINUE
INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING AROUND OR
SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...RBL
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