197
FXUS63 KICT 282003
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
303 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL IMPACT THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS IS INCREASING LATE IN
THE WEEK A INTO THE WEEKEND (FRI-SUN).
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
CURRENTLY, A CUT OFF LOW IS POSITIONED OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE
PACIFIC COAST WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL OK LEADING TO AREAS OF INCREASED SURFACE VORTICITY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER,
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW, SOME CLEARING IS ALLOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREAS OF INCREASED SURFACE VORTICITY, WE COULD SEE A
BRIEF FUNNEL OR SPINUP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.
THROUGH THE EVENING, THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO THE
REGION AND WILL FORCE THE SHOWERS/STORMS NORTH OF OUR AREA. SPOTTY
RAIN ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL REACH BETWEEN 0.10-0.25"
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UNDER THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS OF UP TO 1
INCH.
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, THE CUTOFF LOW OUT WEST WILL BEGIN TO BE
CAUGHT UP IN THE BROADER FLOW AND WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON LIFTING A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF POTENTIAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DECENT 0-3KM SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON, LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY, THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES,
LIFTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRYLINE ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND DEEP SHEAR WILL MAKE THE
MOST OF A RELATIVELY UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, THOUGH A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE SEVERE THREAT SHIFTING OUT OF
THE AREA BY 06Z.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL AND LEE SURFACE TROUGH LINGER OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD
LINGER, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO NOT ONLY INCREASING
TEMPS (UPPER 80S, LOWER 90S), BUT ALSO A LESS SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT
FOR MORE POTENT CONVECTION DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. BUT GIVEN THE BUOYANT
LOWER-LEVEL AIRMASS, SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON EXACT
LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF ANY CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. THERE
COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED STORMS AT TIMES BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE
TO MENTION FOR TAF SITES AND KEEP THINGS MAINLY AS VCTS. THE
MAIN RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IMPACTING TAF SITES. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY FOR TONIGHT AND COULD EVEN DROP INTO
THE LIFR OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THE LOW CLOUDS
IN IFR CATEGORY LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...CDJ
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