825
FXUS63 KICT 300541
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1241 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY RAIN AND STORM CHANCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK
- A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
CURRENTLY, THE CUTOFF LOW IS BEING LIFTED OVER THE ROCKIES BY A
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WITH UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, LEADING TO CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE AND
CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DRYLINE
FROM THE PANHANDLES INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF POTENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DECENT 0-3KM
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THAT
WILL DEVELOP INITIALLY TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE POPS
INCREASING FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BEGINNING AT 00Z. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BASELINE SEVERE THREATS WITH 60 MPH GUSTS
AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL, PRIMARILY FOR OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE, AND SEVERITY WILL
DIMINISH BETWEEN 03-06Z, BUT SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS IN THE MORNING HOURS. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE
SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, PUSHING A
SHARPENING DRYLINE FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. AMPLE INSTABILITY (3500-4000 J/KG
MLCAPE) AND DEEP SHEAR (30 KTS) WILL MAKE THE MOST OF A RELATIVELY
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIAL SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. INITIAL DISCRETE CELLS WILL MERGE INTO A BROKEN
LINE THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH STORMS
SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA BY 06Z.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL AND LEE SURFACE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO SUNDAY MORNING, A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD
LINGER, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THEN FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO NOT ONLY INCREASING
TEMPS (UPPER 80S, LOWER 90S), BUT ALSO A LESS SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT
FOR MORE POTENT CONVECTION DUE TO SUBSIDENCE. BUT GIVEN THE BUOYANT
LOWER-LEVEL AIRMASS, SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON EXACT
LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF ANY CONVECTION FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHORT-TERM MODELS HIGHLIGHT THIS ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
THESE COULD LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
DIRECT IMPACTS AT CNU IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION WITH THIS CYCLE.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 26 KTS.
FINALLY, SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS WITH THIS ISSUANCE AT ALL SITES TO COVER
THIS POTENTIAL, AS EXACT TIMING AND SPECIFIC LOCATION IMPACTS REMAIN
A BIT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...JWK
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