331
FXUS63 KICT 300644
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
144 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-135
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF I-135
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF I-135
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S TO NEAR 90
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AS OF 115 AM SATURDAY MORNING, BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL HAS
OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN-ADVANCE OF A WESTERN CONUS TROUGH.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS WAS ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO WITH A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL WAA PATTERN EMERGING ACROSS MUCH OF KS. LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS REVEALS 850-700 MB WAA ONGOING FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS
THROUGH CENTRAL KS AND INTO SOUTHEAST KS. RADAR REVEALS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS ZONE OF WAA FROM
WESTERN KS THROUGH CENTRAL KS AND INTO SOUTHEAST KS. THIS ZONE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE
OVERALL LAPSE RATE PROFILE WILL STEEPEN WITH THE APPROACHING
WESTERN TROUGH AND MAY YIELD A STRONGER STORM OR 2 TOWARDS DAWN,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS.
THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO A SHARPENING DRYLINE FROM WEST-CENTRAL KS
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE DRYLINE COMBINED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, POISED TO
EJECT FROM EASTERN NM ACROSS OK AND KS THIS AFTERNOON, SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 3 PM. THIS DEVELOPMENT
ZONE IS EXPECTED ALONG A LINE FROM HAYS TO PRATT. DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG AND EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. MIDLEVEL LAPSE ARE FORECAST TO REACH 9-9.5 C/KM. COMBINING
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 3500-4500 J/KG. THE WIND PROFILE
ABOVE 3 KM IS QUITE WEAK WITH 500 MB WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10-20 KT.
AS SUCH, OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR (25-30 KT) IS MARGINAL FOR
SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THAT BEING SAID, ANY SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL, POSSIBLY UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE.
DCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 1500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR,
SUPPORTING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT UP TO 70-80 MPH. IMPRESSIVE
VEERING WITHIN THE LOWEST 3 KM WILL CREATE EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF
200-300 M2/S2. AS SUCH, A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. THE LACK OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LIKELY TO GROW ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. A STRENGTHENING
LLJ IS LIKELY TO LINGER CONVECTION INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KS.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED INTO SUNDAY WITH A SHARPENING
DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL BY AFTERNOON.
QUESTION MARKS REMAIN WHETHER CONVECTION WILL INITIATE DUE TO
INCREASING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEING DISPLACED
ACROSS NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 30-35 KT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 40 KT. THE
CONDITIONAL ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ALONG AND EAST OF I-
135 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM TRENDS NEED TO BE MONITORED
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH KS
REMAINING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST US. AT THIS POINT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL KS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHORT-TERM MODELS HIGHLIGHT THIS ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
THESE COULD LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
DIRECT IMPACTS AT CNU IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION WITH THIS CYCLE.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 26 KTS.
FINALLY, SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS WITH THIS ISSUANCE AT ALL SITES TO COVER
THIS POTENTIAL, AS EXACT TIMING AND SPECIFIC LOCATION IMPACTS REMAIN
A BIT UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...JWK
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