583
FXUS63 KICT 311126
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
626 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-135
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S TO NEAR 90
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 107 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AS OF 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING, SURFACE BASED CONVECTION HAS
TRANSITIONED TO ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KS. THIS PREDOMINATELY DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WAA. THE STRONGEST WAA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PRIOR TO THAT, SLOW STORM
MOTIONS AND HIGH PW VALUES (UP TO 1.5") WILL YIELD HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. THE GREATEST FLOODING
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN SALINE AND NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES.
THE AIRMASS REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
SHARPENING DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL.
QUESTION MARKS REMAIN WHETHER CONVECTION WILL INITIATE DUE TO
INCREASING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEING
DISPLACED ACROSS NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE TO 30-35 KT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING
40 KT. THE CONDITIONAL ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-135 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TRANSITIONING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN EMERGES ACROSS THE CONUS. AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHILE A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO IN RESPONSE TO INCREASE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL PROMOTE AN UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN KS, EASTERN CO, AND EASTERN WY. AFTERNOON STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO AN MCS OR
STORM CLUSTERS LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THESE ARE
LIKELY TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN A HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT. THIS
WOULD STEER THE MCS AND/OR CLUSTERS INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH KS
REMAINING ON THE NORTH/NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHEAST US. AT THIS POINT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CHASE AND LYON COUNTIES AND MAY IMPACT CNU BETWEEN 13-15Z.
MVFR CIGS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
BEHIND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED
WINDS FROM THE ENE AT 10-15 KT. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE CIGS
TO SCATTER TO VFR BY LATE MORNING WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS CENTRAL KS. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AT 10-15
KT. SHORT TERM TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT,
CNU STANDS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA AND HAVE INTRODUCED
A PROB30 MENTION.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRF
AVIATION...BRF
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