662
FXUS63 KICT 312007
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
307 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF I-135
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S TO NEAR 90
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
CURRENTLY, AN ELONGATED, WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A
WEAK TROUGH IS SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATES NUMEROUS LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DRAPED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
THE MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE, PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
WHERE PWATS BETWEEN 1-1.5" HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING. AS WE
PROGRESS INTO THIS AFTERNOON, A SHARPENING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THAT COULD
INITIATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION, LEADING TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WEAKENING OVERALL ASCENT
OVER THE REGION. DECENT INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD THEY MANAGE TO DEVELOP. CURRENT
GUIDANCE INDICATES DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND EAST OF I-135 WITH ACTIVITY
PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOR MONDAY, A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS RETURNS FOR CENTRAL
KANSAS. A LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
LEADING TO EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED
MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS EASTERN CO/WESTERN KANSAS. STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO A MULTICELLULAR MCS
THAT WILL MARCH EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS FOR LATE MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION WITH THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL LEAD SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES (MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S), AND AN OVERALL LESS
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR MORE POTENT CONVECTION DUE TO SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW, AND GIVEN THE BUOYANT LOWER-LEVEL AIRMASS, SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF ANY
CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR TODAY BUT THESE CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN
OF VFR CONDITIONS BY MID-AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WEAKENING WINDS AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD BE ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT CNU
WHICH WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND KEEP BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS GOING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE KS/OK STATE LINE AND
EASTWARD INTO THE FLINT HILLS. CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING KCNU REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME AS ACTIVITY MAY DISSIPATE
PRIOR TO REACHING THE TERMINAL. EARLY TOMORROW MORNING SOME
SHALLOW DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH MAY
BRING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO RSL, SLN, AND GBD. THIS FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AND AN
INCREASE IN EASTERLY WINDS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...WI
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