348
FXUS63 KICT 081904
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
204 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
- MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC
TROUGH ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER WEST CENTRAL KS. VERY
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW ON THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN CONVERGENT FLOW
NORTH OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP ALONG A SHARPENING DRYLINE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IN STORMS HERE REMAINS LOW. ANY DISCRETE
STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS AIRMASS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING
SUPERCELLULAR WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE A COMPLEX OF STORMS PROPAGATING ESE
OFF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WE CONTINUE TO SEE
VERY HIGH PWATS OVER 1.75 INCHES PROGGED THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL
KS WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS SUPPORTING EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES. THE NOCTURNAL LLJ IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO CENTRAL KS
THIS EVENING SUPPORTING A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. AS YOU MOVE
SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL KS WE BEGIN TO SEE MUCH WARMER H7
TEMPERATURES LIKELY PROVIDING A CAPPING INVERSION WITH A SHARP
CUTOFF IN MORE ROBUST CONVECTION OR A STRONG DIURNAL COMPONENT
TO ANY ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON STORMS.
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON TUE WITH A HEAT ADVISORY
NOW IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST KS ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA MAY
APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ASSUMING CLOUDS MIX OUT IN TIME AND
WE SEE SOME INSOLATION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ROLLING EASTWARD DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. UNLIKE TODAY, VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW
ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE DEEPLY MIXED PBL WITH SOME
DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ANY STORM ACTIVITY THAT MANAGES TO BUILD
EASTWARD IN OUR CENTRAL KS COUNTIES.
WED-THU...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO BISECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE PERIOD PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COULD SUPPORT SOME SEVERE STORMS BOTH DAYS.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
STABLE AIR IN IT'S WAKE BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS REMAINS LOW AT
THIS TIME. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT ALSO USHERING IN SOME COOLER AIR ON
SUNDAY-MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS TRIES TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BUT WILL BE
REINFORCED LATER TODAY WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW STREAMING IN
FROM OK. STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL
KS MOST LIKELY IMPACTING KRSL/KSLN/KGBD BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF
KHUT/KICT. KCNU MAY BE IMPACTED BY STORMS LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD BUT HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR KSZ033-049-052-053.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ067-068-082-
083-091>093.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...SGS
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