361
FXUS63 KICT 091927
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
227 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDICES AROUND 105
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND PERHAPS SOUTHEAST KS AGAIN ON
WED.
- LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60-70 MPH POSSIBLE.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
MID/UPPER TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN/NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD EMERGING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT WHILE FORCING THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
SOUTH AND EAST. A DEEPLY MIX PBL IS PROGGED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS THROUGH THE DAY. WE MAY STILL SEE SOME
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG A DIFFUSE
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL RACE EAST/NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING. INVERTED-V PROFILES/STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR HAIL MAY REMAIN WEST OF
THE AREA. OUR CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES COULD BE IMPACTED IN THE 00-
03Z TIMEFRAME AS A MORE SUBTLE PV ANOMALY ROTATES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE WE SEE A MORE RAPID
DEMISE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WE ARE EXPECTING A RELATIVELY BRIEF
WINDOW AS THE PBL IS PROGGED TO DECOUPLE RATHER QUICKLY WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
AS WE MOVE INTO WED, THE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE A TRAILING
COLD FRONT BISECTS KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IN THE 21-22Z
TIMEFRAME WHEN THE CAP WEAKENS. WE CONTINUE TO SEE STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND SEASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-40
KNOTS SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED OR WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR PERHAPS ALONG THE DRYLINE TO
OUR WEST. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE NOCTURNAL LLJ NOSING INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL KS
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE ACTIVITY TO
LINGER OR FESTER THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST
BISECTING SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE CONTINUE TO SEE
STRONG H5 FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH WITH
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40+
KNOTS SUPPORTING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION ONCE AGAIN. AREAS MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE WILL BE THE AREA OF CONCERN FOR A
FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE A MORE STABLE
POST-FRONTAL REGIME BUILDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. STORMS
SHOULD RACE SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WITH A STABLE POST-FRONAL REGIME BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL
FLOW IS ANTICIPATED AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONGER BELT OF H5 FLOW. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT COULD
RESULT IN SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S.
SAT-TUE...ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
SAT INTO EARLY SUN. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WARMEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SAT, WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREVAILING SUN-TUE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
FOLLOWING THE CLEARING OF RESIDUAL MVFR CIGS FROM EARLIER TODAY, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A REDUCTION IN CATEGORY DUE TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT RSL/GBD, SO A PROB30
GROUP FOR TSRA WAS INTRODUCED WITH THIS CYCLE. CURRENTLY EXPECTING
THE BIGGEST IMPACTS TO BE STRONG WINDS AND REDUCED VSBYS.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20 KTS AND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
30 KTS REMAIN LIKELY PRIOR TO SUNDOWN BEFORE BACKING OFF JUST A
BIT OVERNIGHT. STILL THINKING SUSTAINED WINDS AT/ABOVE 15 KTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND STRENGTHEN AFTER
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-048>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ067-068-
082-083-091-092.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JWK
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