701
FXUS63 KICT 101718
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1218 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
- NUMEROUS STORMS LIKELY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT.
- A BRIEF BREAK IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, BUT HIGHER STORM
CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWS A LARGE, DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NEBRASKA
AND WILL SLOWLY SAG INTO KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH THE PRIMARY
TROUGH AXIS SWINGING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY, NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NORTHEAST KANSAS. FURTHER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WEAK COLD FRONT, THE
SETUP IS BIT MORE COMPLICATED. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EASILY RISING INTO THE 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STEEP LOW
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
(MLCAPE AROUND 3000-3500 J/KG). ADDITIONALLY, EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
BE AROUND 30-40 KNOTS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY BE
ORGANIZED AND PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER; HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL THIS FAR
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT ALONG
WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ AFTER 00Z WILL PROVIDE QUITE A BIT OF LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WILL INDUCE SUBTLE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. IF A STORM DOES DEVELOP, THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL (POSSIBLE OVER 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER), 70+ MPH WIND GUSTS, AND MAYBE A TORNADO OR TWO AFTER 00Z
WHEN THE STRENGTHENING LLJ ENLARGES LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. POPS ARE
CURRENTLY BETWEEN 20-40% GIVEN SHAKY CONFIDENCE THAT A STORM
DEVELOPS, AND TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TO DETERMINE IF A STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.
THURSDAY...
THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL STILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY
(MAINLY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS), AND A AN
EMBEDDED RIPPLE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE MUCH BETTER
SYNOPTIC LIFT ACROSS THE AREA THAN TODAY. WITH AMPLE CONVERGENCE AT
THE SURFACE AND A MORE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT, QUICK AND
ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MLCAPE AROUND 3500-4000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AROUND 35-40 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER, IT'S LIKELY THAT STORM MODE
WILL BECOME LINEAR QUITE RAPIDLY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE HAIL
THREAT TO ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALSO,
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND VORTICITY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY OPEN THE DOOR FOR A LANDSPOUT OR TWO UPON INITIAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LASTLY, PWATS AROUND 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES
WILL SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
WHILE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE, VERY HIGH RAINFALL
RATES ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WITH THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT, SO WILL THE RAIN CHANCES.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...
MID-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A TAD ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR
FRIDAY WITH SOME SOLUTIONS KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION DRY, AND
OTHERS SHOWING AN OVERNIGHT MCS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY SIDING WITH THE FORMER
SOLUTION, BUT TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHAT OCCURS ON FRIDAY, THERE'S A FAIRLY
STRONG SIGNAL THAT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL BE CATALYST FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA, AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM DAY TO DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS
THE AREA WILL TURN TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL KS. WE'LL SEE A RETURN OF STRONG SOUTH
WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING WHICH WILL TURN WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH ONCE AGAIN.
LLWS IS FORECAST FOR ALL SITES OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO 13Z.
WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAINTAINED THE PROB30 GROUP AT ICT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION AT CNU
FOR THIS CYCLE. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ067-068-082-
083-091-092.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JWK
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