385
FXUS63 KICT 121753
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1253 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
- A BETTER SIGNAL FOR STORMS/SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA
ON SATURDAY
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER TO FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP ACROSS KANSAS FOR TODAY
WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AS THE MUCH RICHER MOISTURE OVER OKLAHOMA BEGINS
TO SPREAD BACK NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. CURRENT EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER
NORTHERN UTAH. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY AND EJECT OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER
TODAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THEN TRACK EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THESE
STORMS TO TRAVEL FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT THAN THE LATEST CAM
MODEL PROJECTIONS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS.
AND/OR RE-DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARDS DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. KEY THINGS TO WATCH IS IF JETSTREAM WINDS REMAIN
STRONG WITH 12Z MODEL RUNS, THUS ENHANCING RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
DYNAMICS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS WILL INDUCE THE HIGHER
PW/INSTABILITY AXIS TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSING THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE GIVEN
DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND HIGHER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO A RISK, ESPECIALLY IF THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TAKES ON FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
CHARACTERISTICS.
ON SATURDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND ENCOUNTER A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS LOOK TO ERUPT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. THE STORMS LOOK TO CLUSTER
TOGETHER QUICKLY AND BECOME A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH PRIMARY
RISK BEING DAMAGING WINDS AT NIGHT. THERE IS A SCENARIO WHERE
THIS SATURDAY SETUP COULD BE ALTERED. THAT WOULD ENTAIL IF CONVECTION
WAS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, THUS MAKING ATMOSPHERE RECOVERY A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN.
DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY-
THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW A WEAK ELEVATED SIGNAL TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH A BETTER SIGNAL SLATED FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER
CENTRAL KS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING
EASTWARD ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN KS LATE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OVER PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PROB30 GROUPS WERE MAINTAINED
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ070>072-094>096-098>100.
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ
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