872
FXUS63 KICT 131748
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1248 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AFFECT THE REGION ON
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE DANGEROUS HEAT
INDICES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS, AS A RESULT WE HOISTED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE CURRENT SATELLITE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA AND AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL JET/MID-LEVEL WINDS
OVER NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND RESULTANT SOUTHWARD PUSH
ON SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO KANSAS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIATE ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS(4PM- 5PM) WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS A WINDOW
EARLY ON FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS, HOWEVER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECT TO GROW UPSCALE QUICKLY THEN TRANSITION INTO
A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. MICROBURST COMPOSITE VALUES FOR TODAY'S
ENVIRONMENT ARE PUSHING INTO THE EXTREME CATEGORY. AS A RESULT,
DAMAGING TO SIGNIFICANT WINDS OF 70 TO 80MPH ARE LIKELY, MAINLY
IMPACTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IS ALSO LIKELY
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES. FLOOD WATCH OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS POTENTIAL THREAT. THE
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF KANSAS LATER TONIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH A STRONG JET STREAM
MIGRATING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO INCREASE AND USHER RICHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD FROM OKLAHOMA INTO KANSAS. MODELS HAVE
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. GIVEN SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS PERIOD. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WEDNESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH PREMIUM DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 100S ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER MAINLY EASTERN KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY AS HOT CAPPING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT PROHIBIT CONVECTION FROM EXPANDING TOO FAR WEST. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH DRY WEATHER LOOK TO PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY
ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE AT MOST SITES WITH THIS ISSUANCE
TO ADJUST FOR A SLIGHTLY EARLIER TIMING DUE TO OBSERVATIONS AND
ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE. STORMS WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH
THE FRONT. WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL KS
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SPEEDS TO
SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 12-15 KTS AT
ALL SITES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR LOWERING CEILINGS LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ARE
HIGH (70%) ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS GIVEN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. AS
SUCH, INTRODUCED MVFR CEILINGS AT CNU WITH THIS ISSUANCE, THOUGH IFR
MAY BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY. LOW
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT AFTER 12Z.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ082-091>093.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...JWK
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