401
FXUS63 KICT 141130
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
630 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
SLATED FOR TODAY AND MONDAY
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT
- HOT TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AT
NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE MAIN THEME WILL BE COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES/LESS
HUMIDITY FOR TODAY AND MONDAY ACROSS KANSAS. MEANWHILE EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
OVER MONTANA TRAVELING SOUTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS, AND COULD
SPARK OFF SOME HIGH BASED RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A SECOND SUBTLE UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD ALSO TRY TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED HIGHER
BASED WEAK ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING AN ELEVATED SIGNAL OF 700MB MOIST
ADVECTION OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS. COMBINATION OF DECENT
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR(1-6KM LAYER) AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO SUPPORT SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS. IF THE INSTABILITY/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY LATER MODEL RUNS, THERE WOULD
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STRONG TO MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS
AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS. HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY WITH WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS BOOSTING READINGS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HEAT INDICES
WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS THIS PERIOD AS WELL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL WAVE
RACING SOUTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NEBRASKA AND IOWA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE VERY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO BLOSSOM ALONG
THE FRONT OVER MISSOURI, THEN ZIPPER BACK TO THE WEST INTO
KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS
PERIOD WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBINATION BEING
PROJECTED BY THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN AGAIN FOR THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
THEN GRADUALLY WARM FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24HRS FOR ALL TAF
SITES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS
TODAY.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ
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