737
FXUS63 KICT 150731
AFDICT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
231 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMIDITY AGAIN FOR TODAY
- CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
- HEAT RETURNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS IMPACTING SOUTHEAST KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
ANOTHER PLEASANT WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR KANSAS TODAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWER HUMIDITY. THERE IS A WEAK
SIGNAL FOR 700MB WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING TONIGHT OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS WHICH COULD SPARK OFF SOME ELEVATED ACTIVITY
THAT MIGHT CLIP SOME NORTHEAST PARTS OF OUR CWA. SOME MODELS ARE
TRYING TO GENERATE STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE MORE NOTABLE SIGNAL IS 700MB WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH WITH LOW
LEVEL JET SPARKING OFF ELEVATED STORMS WELL NORTHEAST OF KANSAS.
THERE IS A LOW POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW ELEVATED STORMS COULD TRY
TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONLY IF ENOUGH MOISTENING ALOFT CAN OCCUR.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS
BOOSTING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OVER 100
DEGREES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS
KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BLOSSOM ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MISSOURI, AS A PRONOUNCED UPPER
LEVEL WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST OVER IOWA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRY TO
ZIPPER THEIR WAY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT RIPE FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TO OCCUR. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WILL AFFECT MISSOURI AND COULD
POSSIBLY CLIP PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH PERSISTENT 700MB
WARM ADVECTION. THINGS LOOK TO STABILIZE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF
WEDNESDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL COOL OFF A BIT WITH
BELOW NORMAL VALUES LIKELY TO OCCUR THURSDAY-FRIDAY. LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE FAVORING NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PROJECTED
TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PLAINS
WITH THE FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH LAST NIGHT, NOW SITUATED DOWN
ACROSS SOUTHERN TX. A MIX OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TONIGHT INTO MON MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH THAT THEY WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MON MORNING AND WILL REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...RBL
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